Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35552440›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2022

Early prediction of acute necrotizing pancreatitis by artificial intelligence: a prospective cohort-analysis of 2387 cases.

Szabolcs Kiss, József Pintér, Roland Molontay, Marcell Nagy, Nelli Farkas, Zoltán Sipos, Péter Fehérvári, László Pecze, Mária Földi, Áron Vincze and 25 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
18citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
5.7field-weighted citation impact, top 3% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 26 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

35 authors at 15 institutions in 8 countries.

Szabolcs KissDoctoral School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Szeged, Szeged, 6720, Hungary.ORCID 0000-0001-5032-866X
József PintérHuman and Social Data Science Lab, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Műegyetem rkp. 3, Budapest, 1111, Hungary.
Roland MolontayHuman and Social Data Science Lab, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Műegyetem rkp. 3, Budapest, 1111, Hungary.ORCID 0000-0002-0666-5279
Marcell NagyHuman and Social Data Science Lab, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Műegyetem rkp. 3, Budapest, 1111, Hungary.ORCID 0000-0001-5666-7777
Nelli FarkasInstitute for Translational Medicine, Szentágothai Research Centre, Medical School, University of Pécs, Szigeti út 12., II. Emelet, Pécs, 7624, Hungary.
Zoltán SiposInstitute for Translational Medicine, Szentágothai Research Centre, Medical School, University of Pécs, Szigeti út 12., II. Emelet, Pécs, 7624, Hungary.
Péter FehérváriInstitute for Translational Medicine, Szentágothai Research Centre, Medical School, University of Pécs, Szigeti út 12., II. Emelet, Pécs, 7624, Hungary.
László PeczeInstitute for Translational Medicine, Szentágothai Research Centre, Medical School, University of Pécs, Szigeti út 12., II. Emelet, Pécs, 7624, Hungary.
Mária FöldiDoctoral School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Szeged, Szeged, 6720, Hungary.ORCID 0000-0003-4534-0394
Áron VinczeDivision of Gastroenterology, First Department of Medicine, Medical School, University of Pécs, Ifjúság út 13, Pécs, 7624, Hungary.
Tamás TakácsDepartment of Medicine, University of Szeged, Kálvária sgt. 57, Szeged, 6725, Hungary.
László CzakóDepartment of Medicine, University of Szeged, Kálvária sgt. 57, Szeged, 6725, Hungary.
Ferenc IzbékiDepartment of Internal Medicine, Szent György Teaching Hospital of County Fejér, Seregélyesi út 3, Székesfehérvár, 8000, Hungary.
Adrienn HalászDoctoral School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Szeged, Szeged, 6720, Hungary.
Eszter BorosDepartment of Internal Medicine, Szent György Teaching Hospital of County Fejér, Seregélyesi út 3, Székesfehérvár, 8000, Hungary.
József HamvasBajcsy-Zsilinszky Hospital, Maglódi út 89-91, Budapest, 1106, Hungary.
Márta VargaDepartment of Gastroenterology, BMKK Dr Rethy Pal Hospital, Gyulai út 18, Békéscsaba, 5600, Hungary.
Artautas MickeviciusVilnius University Hospital Santaros Clinics, Clinics of Abdominal Surgery, Nephrourology and Gastroenterology, Faculty of Medicine, Vilnius University, Santariškių g. 2, 08410, Vilnius, Lithuania.
Nándor FaluhelyiDepartment of Medical Imaging, Medical School, University of Pécs, Ifjúság út 13, Pécs, 7624, Hungary.
Orsolya FarkasDepartment of Medical Imaging, Medical School, University of Pécs, Ifjúság út 13, Pécs, 7624, Hungary.
Szilárd VáncsaInstitute for Translational Medicine, Szentágothai Research Centre, Medical School, University of Pécs, Szigeti út 12., II. Emelet, Pécs, 7624, Hungary.
Rita NagyInstitute for Translational Medicine, Szentágothai Research Centre, Medical School, University of Pécs, Szigeti út 12., II. Emelet, Pécs, 7624, Hungary.
Stefania BunducCentre for Translational Medicine, Semmelweis University, Üllői út 26, Budapest, 1085, Hungary.ORCID 0000-0001-6978-4526
Péter Jenő HegyiCentre for Translational Medicine, Semmelweis University, Üllői út 26, Budapest, 1085, Hungary.
Katalin MártaCentre for Translational Medicine, Semmelweis University, Üllői út 26, Budapest, 1085, Hungary.
Katalin BorkaCentre for Translational Medicine, Semmelweis University, Üllői út 26, Budapest, 1085, Hungary.
Attila DorosCentre for Translational Medicine, Semmelweis University, Üllői út 26, Budapest, 1085, Hungary.
Nóra HosszúfalusiCentre for Translational Medicine, Semmelweis University, Üllői út 26, Budapest, 1085, Hungary.
László ZubekCentre for Translational Medicine, Semmelweis University, Üllői út 26, Budapest, 1085, Hungary.
Bálint ErőssCentre for Translational Medicine, Semmelweis University, Üllői út 26, Budapest, 1085, Hungary.ORCID 0000-0003-3658-8427
Zsolt MolnárCentre for Translational Medicine, Semmelweis University, Üllői út 26, Budapest, 1085, Hungary.ORCID 0000-0002-1468-4058
Andrea PárniczkyInstitute for Translational Medicine, Szentágothai Research Centre, Medical School, University of Pécs, Szigeti út 12., II. Emelet, Pécs, 7624, Hungary.
Péter Hegyi *Institute for Translational Medicine, Szentágothai Research Centre, Medical School, University of Pécs, Szigeti út 12., II. Emelet, Pécs, 7624, Hungary.ORCID 0000-0003-0399-7259
Andrea Szentesi *Doctoral School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Szeged, Szeged, 6720, Hungary. szentesiai@gmail.com.
Hungarian Pancreatic Study Group
Semmelweis University · HUUniversity of Pecs · HUUniversity of Szeged · HUFejér Megyei Szent György Egyetemi Oktató Kórház · HUHeim Pál Országos Gyermekgyógyászati Intézet · HUBudapest University of Technology and Economics · HUUniversitatea de Medicină, Farmacie, Științe și Tehnologie „George Emil Palade” din Târgu Mureș · ROUniversity of Debrecen · HUUniversity of Veterinary Medicine · HUVilnius University · LTJohn von Neumann University · HUMagyar Agrár- és Élettudományi Egyetem · HUUniversity of Helsinki · FIBajcsy-Zsilinszky Kórház és Rendelőintézet · HUBezmiâlem Vakıf Üniversitesi · TR

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Pancreatic necrosis is a consistent prognostic factor in acute pancreatitis (AP). However, the clinical scores currently in use are either too complicated or require data that are unavailable on admission or lack sufficient predictive value. We therefore aimed to develop a tool to aid in necrosis prediction. The XGBoost machine learning algorithm processed data from 2387 patients with AP. The confidence of the model was estimated by a bootstrapping method and interpreted via the 10th and the 90th percentiles of the prediction scores. Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values were calculated to quantify the contribution of each variable provided. Finally, the model was implemented as an online application using the Streamlit Python-based framework. The XGBoost classifier provided an AUC value of 0.757. Glucose, C-reactive protein, alkaline phosphatase, gender and total white blood cell count have the most impact on prediction based on the SHAP values. The relationship between the size of the training dataset and model performance shows that prediction performance can be improved. This study combines necrosis prediction and artificial intelligence. The predictive potential of this model is comparable to the current clinical scoring systems and has several advantages over them.

Indexed as

Artificial IntelligencePancreatitis, Acute NecrotizingAcute DiseaseHumansNecrosisProspective StudiesRetrospective Studies

Identifiers

PMID35552440
PMCPMC9098474
OpenAlexW4280616075

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.