ArticleThe Lancet. Planetary health2022
Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000-19: a three-stage modelling study.
Article in The Lancet. Planetary health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
35 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Building the model: a review of input structures in extreme temperature-health.Environmental health : a global access science source · 2026Pooled it
- Inverted U-shaped association between bacillary dysentery and temperature: A new finding using a novel two-stage strategy in multi-region studies.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Pooled it
- Mapping the Burden of Ischemic Stroke Attributable to Temperature Variation under Climate Change Scenarios Accounting for Long-Term Adaptation.Environmental health perspectives · 2026Article
- Article
- Urbanization processes widen global divergence in extreme temperature variability.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Temperature Variability and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: The China Pulmonary Health Study.Environment & health (Washington, D.C.) · 2026Article
- Using data science to identify climate change and health adverse impacts and solutions in Africa: a scoping review.npj health systems · 2026Article
- A Global High-Resolution Comprehensive Heat Indices Dataset from 1950 to 2024.Scientific data · 2026Article
- Multifaceted Janus Textile Simultaneously Achieving Self-Sustainable Thermal Management, Perception, and Protection.Nano-micro letters · 2026Article
- Temperature variability and mortality risk: distinguishing intraday and interday effects and quantifying the attributable mortality burden in Chengdu, Southwest China.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- State-of-Art in Studying the Public Health Effects of Heat: A Literature Review.Global challenges (Hoboken, NJ) · 2025Review
- Sex differences in cerebral blood flow and cardiac function in response to exercise in the heat.Experimental physiology · 2025Article
- A Machine Learning Model Integrating Remote Sensing, Ground Station, and Geospatial Data to Predict Fine-Resolution Daily Air Temperature for Tuscany, Italy.Remote sensing · 2025Article
- Associations between monthly temperature anomalies and mortality among children younger than five years in low- and middle-income countries.Communications medicine · 2025Article
- Estimating the effects of temperature on mortality and hospitalisations under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the short- and long-term by region in Chile: a population-based, modelling study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2025Article
- Effects of high summer temperatures on heatstroke-related ambulance dispatches in Japan: A nationwide time-stratified case-crossover analysis.Preventive medicine reports · 2025Article
- Overheated and Understudied: A Scoping Review of Heat-Related Health Impacts in the Arabian Peninsula.GeoHealth · 2025Review
- Short-term exposure to ambient temperature variability and myocardial infarction hospital admissions: A nationwide case-crossover study in Sweden.PLoS medicine · 2025Article
- Flora Checklist in the Bayanaul State National Nature Park, Kazakhstan with Special Focus on New Species of Conservation Interest.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Extreme Temperature Events in Kazakhstan and Their Impacts on Public Health and Energy Demand.Global challenges (Hoboken, NJ) · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
67 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundIncreased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000-19.
methodsIn this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° from 2000-19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days' minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades.
findingsAn increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1 753 392 deaths (95% CI 1 159 901-2 357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, accounting for 3·4% (2·2-4·6) of all deaths. Most of Asia, Australia, and New Zealand were observed to have a higher percentage excess in mortality than the global mean. Globally, the percentage excess in mortality increased by about 4·6% (3·7-5·3) per decade. The largest increase occurred in Australia and New Zealand (7·3%, 95% CI 4·3-10·4), followed by Europe (4·4%, 2·2-5·6) and Africa (3·3, 1·9-4·6).
interpretationGlobally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability.
fundingAustralian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.
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