Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35549897›Full record

ArticleBMC pulmonary medicine2022

Incubation period, clinical and lung CT features for early prediction of COVID-19 deterioration: development and internal verification of a risk model.

Hongbing Peng, Chao Hu, Wusheng Deng, Lingmei Huang, Yushan Zhang, Baowei Luo, Xingxing Wang, Xiaodan Long, Xiaoying Huang

Open access · goldAbstract readMulticenter Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in BMC pulmonary medicine, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
2.2field-weighted citation impact, top 13% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 15 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. [Association Between Different Modes of Respiratory Support and Feeding Intolerance in Preterm Infants: A Retrospective Cohort Study].Sichuan da xue xue bao. Yi xue ban = Journal of Sichuan University. Medical science edition · 2023
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 5 institutions in 1 country.

Hongbing PengDepartment of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Loudi Central Hospital, No. 51, Changqing Middle Street, Loudi, 417000, People's Republic of China. redcat8851@sina.com.
Chao HuDepartment of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Xiangtan Central Hospital, No. 120, Road Heping, Distract Yuhu, Xiangtan, 411100, People's Republic of China.
Wusheng DengDepartment of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Shaoyang Central Hospital, No. 36 Hongqi Road, Shaoyang, 422000, People's Republic of China.
Lingmei HuangDepartment of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, The First People's Hospital of YueYang, No. 39 Dongmaoling Road, Yueyang, 414000, People's Republic of China.
Yushan ZhangDepartment of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Huaihua First People's Hospital, No. 144, Jinxi South Road, Huaihua, 418000, People's Republic of China.
Baowei LuoDepartment of Respiratory Medicine, Shuangfeng County People's Hospital, 238 Shuyuan Road, Shuangfeng County, 417007, People's Republic of China.
Xingxing WangDepartment of Infection, Loudi Central Hospital, No. 51, Changqing Middle Street, Loudi, 417000, People's Republic of China.
Xiaodan LongDepartment of Urology Surgery, Loudi Central Hospital, No. 51, Changqing Middle Street, Loudi, 417000, People's Republic of China.
Xiaoying HuangDepartment of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Loudi Central Hospital, No. 51, Changqing Middle Street, Loudi, 417000, People's Republic of China.
Loudi Central Hospital · CNHuaian First People’s Hospital · CNThe Central Hospital of Shaoyang · CNXiangyang Central Hospital · CNYueyang Second People's Hospital · CN

Funding

the COVID-19 emergency in Xiangtan City SFYB20201006the Special Topic Project for Pneumonia Epidemic Infected by New Coronavirus in Loudi City Caijiao [2020] No. 43
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundMost severe, critical, or mortal COVID-19 cases often had a relatively stable period before their status worsened. We developed a deterioration risk model of COVID-19 (DRM-COVID-19) to predict exacerbation risk and optimize disease management on admission.

methodWe conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study with 239 confirmed symptomatic COVID-19 patients. A combination of the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), change-in-estimate (CIE) screened out independent risk factors for the multivariate logistic regression model (DRM-COVID-19) from 44 variables, including epidemiological, demographic, clinical, and lung CT features. The compound study endpoint was progression to severe, critical, or mortal status. Additionally, the model's performance was evaluated for discrimination, accuracy, calibration, and clinical utility, through internal validation using bootstrap resampling (1000 times). We used a nomogram and a network platform for model visualization.

resultsIn the cohort study, 62 cases reached the compound endpoint, including 42 severe, 18 critical, and two mortal cases. DRM-COVID-19 included six factors: dyspnea [odds ratio (OR) 4.89;confidence interval (95% CI) 1.53-15.80], incubation period (OR 0.83; 95% CI 0.68-0.99), number of comorbidities (OR 1.76; 95% CI 1.03-3.05), D-dimer (OR 7.05; 95% CI, 1.35-45.7), C-reactive protein (OR 1.06; 95% CI 1.02-1.1), and semi-quantitative CT score (OR 1.50; 95% CI 1.27-1.82). The model showed good fitting (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness, X

conclusionWe developed a predictive model, which includes the including incubation period along with clinical and lung CT features. The model presented satisfactory prediction and discrimination performance for COVID-19 patients who might progress from mild or moderate to severe or critical on admission, improving the clinical prognosis and optimizing the medical resources.

Indexed as

COVID-19Cohort StudiesHumansInfectious Disease Incubation PeriodLungRetrospective StudiesTomography, X-Ray ComputedChange-in-estimate (CIE)COVID-19DeteriorationIncubation periodPrediction modelSemi-quantitative CT score

Identifiers

PMID35549897
PMCPMC9095818
OpenAlexW4280517654

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.