ArticleBMJ open2022
Impact of trends and gender disparity in obesity on future type 2 diabetes in Turkey: a mathematical modelling analysis.
Article in BMJ open, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Obesity among adults living in post-earthquake container settlements: a cross-sectional study in Malatya, Türkiye.BMJ open · 2026Article
- Epidemiological trends of type 2 diabetes in Middle East and North Africa, 1990-2023: global burden of disease data analysis.International journal of public health · 2026Article
- Development and validation of a Jordan-specific risk score for type 2 diabetes mellitus.BMJ nutrition, prevention & health · 2025Article
- Unraveling the Causal Relationship Between Non-Communicable Diseases, Obesity, and Health Expenditure: Insights from the Toda-Yamamoto Approach.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Nonlinear association between the triglyceride-glucose index and diabetes mellitus in overweight and obese individuals: a cross-sectional retrospective analysis.Diabetology & metabolic syndrome · 2024Article
- 'No one ever asks about something that actually is relevant to my life': A qualitative study of diabetes and diabetes care experiences of young women with type 2 diabetes during their reproductive years.Diabetic medicine : a journal of the British Diabetic Association · 2023Article
- Epidemiological impact of public health interventions against diabetes in Qatar: mathematical modeling analyses.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundUsing a previously developed and validated mathematical model, we predicted future prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and major modifiable risk factors (obesity, physical inactivity and smoking) stratified by age and sex in Turkey up to the year 2050.
methodsOur deterministic compartmental model fitted nationally representative demographic and risk factor data simultaneously for Turkish adults (aged 20-79) between 1997 and 2017, then estimated future trends. Our novel approach explored the impact of future obesity trends on these projections, specifically modelling (1) a gradual fall in obesity in women after the year 2020 until it equalled the age-specific levels seen in men and (2) cessation of the rise in obesity after 2020.
resultsT2DM prevalence is projected to rise from an estimated 14.0% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 12.8% to 16.0%) in 2020 to 18.4% (95% UI 16.9% to 20.9%) by 2050; 19.7% in women and 17.2% in men by 2050; reflecting high levels of obesity (39.7% for women and 22.0% for men in 2050). Overall, T2DM prevalence could be reduced by about 4% if obesity stopped rising after 2020 or by 12% (22% in women) if obesity prevalence among women could be lowered to equal that of men. The higher age-specific obesity prevalence among women resulted in 2 076 040 additional women developing T2DM by the year 2050.
conclusionT2DM is common in Turkey and will remain so. Interventions and policies targeting the high burden of obesity (and low physical activity levels), particularly in women, could significantly impact future disease burdens.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.