Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35538215›Full record

ReviewNPJ digital medicine2022

Algorithmic fairness in pandemic forecasting: lessons from COVID-19.

Thomas C Tsai, Sercan Arik, Benjamin H Jacobson, Jinsung Yoon, Nate Yoder, Dario Sava, Margaret Mitchell, Garth Graham, Tomas Pfister

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in NPJ digital medicine, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Disparate Model Performance and Stability in Machine Learning Clinical Support for Diabetes and Heart Diseases.AMIA Joint Summits on Translational Science proceedings. AMIA Joint Summits on Translational Science · 2025
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Thomas C TsaiDepartment of Health Policy and Management, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA. ttsai@bwh.harvard.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9183-016X
Sercan ArikGoogle Inc., Mountain View, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6333-1729
Benjamin H JacobsonDepartment of Health Policy and Management, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5550-3559
Jinsung YoonGoogle Inc., Mountain View, CA, USA.
Nate YoderGoogle Inc., Mountain View, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4153-4722
Dario SavaGoogle Inc., Mountain View, CA, USA.
Margaret MitchellGoogle Inc., Mountain View, CA, USA.
Garth GrahamGoogle Inc., Mountain View, CA, USA.
Tomas PfisterGoogle Inc., Mountain View, CA, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Racial and ethnic minorities have borne a particularly acute burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. There is a growing awareness from both researchers and public health leaders of the critical need to ensure fairness in forecast results. Without careful and deliberate bias mitigation, inequities embedded in data can be transferred to model predictions, perpetuating disparities, and exacerbating the disproportionate harms of the COVID-19 pandemic. These biases in data and forecasts can be viewed through both statistical and sociological lenses, and the challenges of both building hierarchical models with limited data availability and drawing on data that reflects structural inequities must be confronted. We present an outline of key modeling domains in which unfairness may be introduced and draw on our experience building and testing the Google-Harvard COVID-19 Public Forecasting model to illustrate these challenges and offer strategies to address them. While targeted toward pandemic forecasting, these domains of potentially biased modeling and concurrent approaches to pursuing fairness present important considerations for equitable machine-learning innovation.

Identifiers

PMID35538215
PMCPMC9090910

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.