ArticleNature medicine2022
Modeling transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron in China.
Article in Nature medicine, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 150 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
150 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Excess mortality in Mainland China after the end of the Zero COVID policy: A systematic review.Epidemiology and infection · 2026Pooled it
- Prior infections and effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in test-negative studies: a systematic review and meta-analysis.American journal of epidemiology · 2024Pooled it
- Pooled it
- VV116 versus Nirmatrelvir-Ritonavir for Oral Treatment of Covid-19.The New England journal of medicine · 2023Trial
- Assessing spatial transmission risk of respiratory infectious diseases across cities of different socioeconomic tiers in China: A modelling study.PLoS medicine · 2026Article
- Article
- Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 outbreaks in China: a four-year retrospective analysis using extended SEIR models.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Neuroprotective effects of Premna integrifolia nano-phytosomes in haloperidol-induced Parkinson's rat model: A computational-guided Olivil nanoformulation delivery approach.Metabolic brain disease · 2026Article
- Systematic Determinants of Global COVID-19 Burden: Longitudinal Time-Series Analysis Using Big Data-Driven Artificial Intelligence.Journal of medical Internet research · 2025Article
- Assessing training needs and influencing factors among personnel at centers for disease control and prevention in northeast China: a cross-sectional study framed by SDT and TPB using machine learning techniques.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Estimating cumulative infection rate of COVID-19 after adjusting the dynamic zero-COVID policy in China.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- When Omicron knocks at door: An inverted U-shape relationship between virus proximity and prosocial behavior.Fundamental research · 2025Article
- Comparison of the pathogenicity and neutrophil and monocyte response between SARS-CoV-2 prototype and Omicron BA.1 in a lethal mouse model.Animal models and experimental medicine · 2025Article
- Natural Infection of Omicron BA.5.2 in Patients Provides Broad Immune Responses Against SARS-CoV-2.Microorganisms · 2025Article
- Modeling-based design of adaptive control strategy for the effective preparation of 'Disease X'.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2025Article
- The strategy to control the outbreak of an emerging respiratory infectious disease in a simulated Chinese megacity.Heliyon · 2025Article
- Sex- and age-specific differences in excess mortality in China during the COVID-19 pandemic: a study based on official vital statistics data.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2025Article
- Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Multidrug-Resistant Organism Infections in Infected Pancreatic Necrosis: A Post-Hoc Cohort Analysis.Infection and drug resistance · 2025Article
- Fighting COVID-19 in China's Greater Bay Area: how do different policy styles affect policy effectiveness?Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Impacts of travel duration on urban-rural resident free vaccination behavior: Chinese COVID-19 vaccine booster dose evidence.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2024Article
90 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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18 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Having adopted a dynamic zero-COVID strategy to respond to SARS-CoV-2 variants with higher transmissibility since August 2021, China is now considering whether, and for how long, this policy can remain in place. The debate has thus shifted towards the identification of mitigation strategies for minimizing disruption to the healthcare system in the case of a nationwide epidemic. To this aim, we developed an age-structured stochastic compartmental susceptible-latent-infectious-removed-susceptible model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission calibrated on the initial growth phase for the 2022 Omicron outbreak in Shanghai, to project COVID-19 burden (that is, number of cases, patients requiring hospitalization and intensive care, and deaths) under hypothetical mitigation scenarios. The model also considers age-specific vaccine coverage data, vaccine efficacy against different clinical endpoints, waning of immunity, different antiviral therapies and nonpharmaceutical interventions. We find that the level of immunity induced by the March 2022 vaccination campaign would be insufficient to prevent an Omicron wave that would result in exceeding critical care capacity with a projected intensive care unit peak demand of 15.6 times the existing capacity and causing approximately 1.55 million deaths. However, we also estimate that protecting vulnerable individuals by ensuring accessibility to vaccines and antiviral therapies, and maintaining implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions could be sufficient to prevent overwhelming the healthcare system, suggesting that these factors should be points of emphasis in future mitigation policies.
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