ArticleScientific reports2022
Estimating and explaining cross-country variation in the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19.
Article in Scientific reports, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions Targeted at COVID-19 Pandemic on Influenza Burden-A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2026Pooled it
- Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission: rapid review of evidence from Italy, the United States, the United Kingdom, and China.Frontiers in public health · 2024Pooled it
- The methodologies to assess the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19: a systematic review.European journal of epidemiology · 2022Pooled it
- Machine learning and probabilistic approaches for forecasting infectious disease transmission and cases.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2026Article
- Selected Aspects of Self-Regulation: How People Cope with Danger and Change in the Context of COVID-19 (Research in Poland and Ukraine).International journal of environmental research and public health · 2026Article
- European countries policy responses against SARS-Cov-2 in the context of vaccinations.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Knowledge, attitudes and practices related to SARS-CoV-2 prevention in Kenya.Journal of public health in Africa · 2025Article
- The global response to the pandemic: An empirical cluster analysis of policies targeting COVID-19.PloS one · 2025Article
- A novel, scenario-based approach to comparing non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies across nations.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2024Article
- Epidemic modelling suggests that in specific circumstances masks may become more effective when fewer contacts wear them.Communications medicine · 2024Article
- Differential responses of SARS-CoV-2 variants to environmental drivers during their selective sweeps.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce COVID-19 transmission in the UK: a rapid mapping review and interactive evidence gap map.Journal of public health (Oxford, England) · 2024Review
- Influence of Seasonality and Public-Health Interventions on the COVID-19 Pandemic in Northern Europe.Journal of clinical medicine · 2024Article
- Article
- Pandemic response strategies and threshold phenomena.Global epidemiology · 2023Article
- Executive Summary to the Royal Society report "COVID-19: examining the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions".Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2023Article
- Assessing individual risk and the latent transmission of COVID-19 in a population with an interaction-driven temporal model.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Effectiveness assessment of non-pharmaceutical interventions: lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic.The Lancet. Public health · 2023Review
- Socioeconomic differences in the reduction of face-to-face contacts in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany.BMC public health · 2022Article
- A general framework for optimising cost-effectiveness of pandemic response under partial intervention measures.Scientific reports · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
To control the COVID-19 pandemic, countries around the world have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as school closures or stay-at-home orders. Previous work has estimated the effectiveness of NPIs, yet without examining variation in NPI effectiveness across countries. Based on data from the first epidemic wave of [Formula: see text] countries, we estimate country-specific differences in the effectiveness of NPIs via a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model. Our estimates reveal substantial variation between countries, indicating that NPIs have been more effective in some countries (e. g. Switzerland, New Zealand, and Iceland) as compared to others (e. g. Singapore, South Africa, and France). We then explain differences in the effectiveness of NPIs through 12 country characteristics (e. g. population age, urbanization, employment, etc.). A positive association with country-specific effectiveness of NPIs was found for government effectiveness, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, population ages 65+, and health expenditures. Conversely, a negative association with effectiveness of NPIs was found for the share of informal employment, average household size and population density. Overall, the wealth and demographic structure of a country can explain variation in the effectiveness of NPIs.
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