ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2022
Assessing the role of multiple mechanisms increasing the age of dengue cases in Thailand.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
35 citing papers in PubMed.
- Dengue virus infection.Nature reviews. Disease primers · 2026Review
- Long-term antibody dynamics challenge the paradigm of lifelong homotypic immunity to dengue virus.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Addressing the elephant in the room: Proceedings of the third annual Dengue Endgame Summit.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Immune-mediated protection and enhancement of dengue drives patterns of infant cases in Brazil.Nature communications · 2026Article
- The TAK-003 story: key decisions that shaped development of a tetravalent dengue vaccine.NPJ vaccines · 2026Review
- Early individualized risk prediction using clinical data for children during the febrile phase of dengue in outpatient settings in Vietnam and Thailand.PLOS digital health · 2026Article
- Dengue and severe dengue.Clinical microbiology reviews · 2025Review
- Priorities for modelling arbovirus transmission under climate change.Trends in molecular medicine · 2025Review
- Introduction, establishment, and distribution ofLancet regional health. Americas · 2025Article
- Proceedings of the second annual dengue endgame summit: A call to action.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Assessing the global dengue burden: Incidence, mortality, and disability trends over three decades.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Observational
- Reconciling heterogeneous dengue virus infection risk estimates from different study designs.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Article
- The dengue disquisition: A low-cost public housing conundrum in Klang Valley, Malaysia.PloS one · 2025Article
- Recommendations for dengue vaccine implementation in the elderly population.Therapeutic advances in vaccines and immunotherapy · 2025Review
- Clinical features and laboratory indicators of dengue infection in China: a retrospective study of adult patients in a hospital of traditional Chinese medicine.Frontiers in medicine · 2025Article
- Per vaginal bleeding-an important but ignored feature of dengue.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Reconciling heterogeneous dengue virus infection risk estimates from different study designs.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Climate, demography, immunology, and virology combine to drive two decades of dengue virus dynamics in Cambodia.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Antigenic distance between primary and secondary dengue infections correlates with disease risk.Science translational medicine · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
16 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The mean age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases increased considerably in Thailand from 8.1 to 24.3 y between 1981 and 2017 (mean annual increase of 0.45 y). Alternative proposed explanations for this trend, such as changes in surveillance practices, reduced mosquito–human contact, and shifts in population demographics, have different implications for global dengue epidemiology. To evaluate the contribution of each of these hypothesized mechanisms to the observed data, we developed 20 nested epidemiological models of dengue virus infection, allowing for variation over time in population demographics, infection hazards, and reporting rates. We also quantified the effect of removing or retaining each source of variation in simulations of the age trajectory. Shifts in the age structure of susceptibility explained 58% of the observed change in age. Adding heterogeneous reporting by age and reductions in per-serotype infection hazard to models with shifts in susceptibility explained an additional 42%. Reductions in infection hazards were mostly driven by changes in the number of infectious individuals at any time (another consequence of shifting age demographics) rather than changes in the transmissibility of individual infections. We conclude that the demographic transition drives the overwhelming majority of the observed change as it changes both the age structure of susceptibility and the number of infectious individuals. With the projected Thai population age structure, our results suggest a continuing increase in age of DHF cases, shifting the burden toward individuals with more comorbidity. These insights into dengue epidemiology may be relevant to many regions of the globe currently undergoing comparable changes in population demographics.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.