Psychosocial Indicators of Adolescent Alcohol, Cigarette, and Marijuana Use: An Analysis of Normalized, Harmonized, and Pooled Data.

We normalized, harmonized, and pooled 344,429 surveys collected from 106,470 research participants from 25 research studies that assessed past 30-day alcohol use, drunkenness, smoking cigarettes, using marijuana, and a host of psychosocial variables. After normalizing and harmonizing psychosocial measures, we completed analyses to examine the ability of psychosocial variables to serve as proxy indicators of use. Intentionality, peer descriptive normative beliefs, and age emerged as being of primary importance in indicating use. Additional variables - peer injunctive norms, beliefs about the positive and negative consequences of use, and attitudes - were also demonstrated to have the potential to serve as proxies in the assessment of substance use risk. There were developmental patterns in how intentionality and descriptive normative beliefs changed with age. Young adolescents had scores that are protective; they have positive intentionality and do not see the prevalence of alcohol and other drug use as widespread. These and other psychosocial variable's mean scores generally erode with age while the distribution of scores widens as youth grow older. The goal of analyses was to define age-related psychosocial profiles that can be used prospectively to estimate substance use risk. These profiles are useful in creating virtual control cases for evaluating disseminated prevention programs.