ArticlePreventive medicine2022
Modelling the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on bowel cancer screening outcomes in England: A decision analysis to prepare for future screening disruption.
Article in Preventive medicine, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- COVID-19's disruptions to cancer care pathways and widening of health inequalities in the UK: a systematic review.BMC health services research · 2026Pooled it
- Impacts of a Public Health Emergency on Cancer Testing Rates, Follow-up, and Cancer Diagnosis: An Evaluation of the COVID-19 Pandemic.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2026Article
- Scoping review of modelling studies assessing the impact of disruptions to essential health services during COVID-19.BMJ open · 2023Article
- Potential global loss of life expected due to COVID-19 disruptions to organised colorectal cancer screening.EClinicalMedicine · 2023Article
- Observational
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The English Bowel Cancer Screening Programme invites people between the ages of 60 and 74 to take a Faecal Immunochemical Test every two years. This programme was interrupted during the coronavirus pandemic. The research aimed: (1) to estimate the impact of colorectal cancer (CRC) Faecal Immunochemical Test screening pauses of different lengths and the actual coronavirus-related screening pause in England, and (2) to analyse the most effective and cost-effective strategies to re-start CRC screening to prepare for future disruptions. The analysis used the validated Microsimulation Model in Cancer of the Bowel built in the R programming language. The model simulated the life course of a representative English screening population from 2019, by age, sex, socio-economic deprivation, and prior screening history. The modelling scenarios were based on assumptions and data from screening centres in England. Pausing bowel screening in England due to coronavirus pandemic is predicted to increase CRC deaths by 0.73% within 10 years and 0.13% over the population's lifetime, with excess deaths due to peak in 2023. More deaths are expected in men and people aged over 70. Pausing screening for longer would result in greater additional CRC cases and deaths. Postponing screening for everyone would be the most cost-effective strategy to minimise the impact of screening disruption without any additional endoscopy capacity. If endoscopy capacity can be increased, temporarily raising the Faecal Immunochemical Test threshold to 190 μg/g may help to minimise CRC deaths, particularly if screening programmes start from age 50 in the future.
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Registered trials
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