Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35523492›Full record

ArticleBMJ open2022

Has a change in established care pathways during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic led to an excess death rate in the fragility fracture population? A longitudinal cohort study of 1846 patients.

Adeel Ikram, Alan Norrish, Luke Ollivere, Jessica Nightingale, Ana Valdes, Benjamin J Ollivere

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
0.5field-weighted citation impact, top 34% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 5 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Adeel IkramAcademic Orthopaedics, Trauma and Sports Medicine, University of Nottingham School of Medicine, Nottingham, UK adeel.ikram@nottingham.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0002-7520-6949
Alan NorrishAcademic Orthopaedics, Trauma and Sports Medicine, University of Nottingham School of Medicine, Nottingham, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-3735-1042
Luke OllivereQueens Medical Centre, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, Nottingham, UK.
Jessica NightingaleAcademic Orthopaedics, Trauma and Sports Medicine, University of Nottingham School of Medicine, Nottingham, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-8359-5705
Ana ValdesSchool of Medicine, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-1141-4471
Benjamin J OllivereAcademic Orthopaedics, Trauma and Sports Medicine, University of Nottingham School of Medicine, Nottingham, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-1410-1756
Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust · GBUniversity of Nottingham · GB

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/V027883/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveDuring the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, changes to established care pathways and discharge thresholds for patients with fragility fractures were made. This was to increase hospital bed capacity and minimise the inpatient risk of contracting COVID-19. This study aims to identify the excess death rate in this population during the first wave of the pandemic.

designA longitudinal cohort study of patients with fragility fractures identified by specific International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes. The first wave of the pandemic was defined as the 3-month period between 1 March and 1 June 2020. The control group presented between 1 March and 1 June 2019.

settingTwo acute National Health Service hospitals within the East Midlands region of England.

participants1846 patients with fragility fractures over the aforementioned two specified matched time points. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Four-month mortality of all patients with fragility fractures with a subanalysis of patients with fragility hip fractures.

results832 patients with fragility fracture were admitted during the pandemic period (104 diagnosed with COVID-19). 1014 patients presented with fragility fractures in the control group. Mortality in patients with fragility fracture without COVID-19 was significantly higher among pandemic period admissions (14.7%) than the pre-pandemic cohort (10.2%) (HR=1.86; 95% CI 1.41 to 2.45; p<0.001) adjusted for age and sex. Length of stay was shorter during the pandemic period (effect size=-4.2 days; 95% CI -5.8 to -3.1, p<0.001). Subanalysis of patients with fragility hip fracture revealed a mortality of 8.4% in the pre-pandemic cohort, and 15.48% during pandemic admissions with no COVID-19 diagnosis (HR=2.08; 95% CI 1.11 to 3.90; p=0.021).

conclusionsThere is a significant increase in excess death, not explained by confirmed COVID-19 infections. Altered care pathways and aggressive discharge criteria during the pandemic are likely responsible for the increase in excess deaths.

Indexed as

COVID-19Hip FracturesCohort StudiesCritical PathwaysHumansLongitudinal StudiesPandemicsRetrospective StudiesState MedicineCOVID-19excess deathfragility fracturehip fracture

Identifiers

PMID35523492
PMCPMC9082727
OpenAlexW4229000202

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.