Development and internal validation of machine learning algorithms for predicting complications after primary total hip arthroplasty.

introductionComplications after total hip arthroplasty (THA) may result in readmission or reoperation and impose a significant cost on the healthcare system. Understanding which patients are at-risk for complications can potentially allow for targeted interventions to decrease complication rates through pursuing preoperative health optimization. The purpose of the current was to develop and internally validate machine learning (ML) algorithms capable of performing patient-specific predictions of all-cause complications within two years of primary THA.

methodsThis was a retrospective case-control study of clinical registry data from 616 primary THA patients from one large academic and two community hospitals. The primary outcome was all-cause complications at a minimum of 2-years after primary THA. Recursive feature elimination was applied to identify preoperative variables with the greatest predictive value. Five ML algorithms were developed on the training set using tenfold cross-validation and internally validated on the independent testing set of patients. Algorithms were assessed by discrimination, calibration, Brier score, and decision curve analysis to quantify performance.

resultsThe observed complication rate was 16.6%. The stochastic gradient boosting model achieved the best performance with an AUC = 0.88, calibration intercept = 0.1, calibration slope = 1.22, and Brier score = 0.09. The most important factors for predicting complications were age, drug allergies, prior hip surgery, smoking, and opioid use. Individual patient-level explanations were provided for the algorithm predictions and incorporated into an open access digital application: https://sorg-apps.shinyapps.io/tha_complication/

conclusionsThe stochastic boosting gradient algorithm demonstrated good discriminatory capacity for identifying patients at high-risk of experiencing a postoperative complication and proof-of-concept for creating office-based applications from ML that can perform real-time prediction. However, this clinical utility of the current algorithm is unknown and definitions of complications broad. Further investigation on larger data sets and rigorous external validation is necessary prior to the assessment of clinical utility with respect to risk-stratification of patients undergoing primary THA. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: III, therapeutic study.