ArticleCadernos de saude publica2022
Fertility trends during successive novel infectious disease outbreaks: Zika and COVID-19 in Brazil.
Article in Cadernos de saude publica, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Parental socioeconomic composition of birth cohorts changed during the COVID-19 pandemic.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Live births and deaths of neonates born to adolescent mothers: analysis of trends and associations from a population study in a region of a middle-income country.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2025Article
- Maternal and late mortality trends, emphasizing the H1N1 and COVID-19 pandemics, in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from 2009 to 2021.Revista brasileira de epidemiologia = Brazilian journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Trends in advanced maternal age pregnancies in Brazil: a time-series study (2011-2021).Revista da Associacao Medica Brasileira (1992) · 2025Article
- Temporal analysis of mortality from preventable causes in the first 24 hours of life, 2000-2021.Revista latino-americana de enfermagem · 2023Article
- The relationship between staying at home during the pandemic and the number of conceptions: A national panel data analysis.PloS one · 2023Article
- COVID-19 emergency cash transfer and pregnancy in Brazil.Demographic researchArticle
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
This study aims to estimate fertility trends in Brazil in the 2010s and early 2020s during a period of back-to-back novel infectious disease outbreaks - Zika virus and COVID-19. We use Brazilian Ministry of Health and Association of Civil Registrar data from 2011-2021 to measure general fertility rates at the national and state levels. We also used seasonal ARIMA model to forecast fertility rates by month and state in 2021 and compared these forecasts with observed fertility rates. We find that fertility rates were steady over 2011-2015 with no statistically significant variation, followed by a sharp decline during the Zika outbreak in 2016 followed by a return to pre-Zika levels after the end of the epidemic. Furthermore, to evaluate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, we make comparisons with observed and forecast rates from 2020-2021, showing that declines were generally larger for observed than for forecast rates, yet statistically insignificant. We argue that the resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 might lead to further declines, as women might have not had enough time to adjust rebound from either the effects of the Zika epidemic. We also discuss the importance of timely availability of live births data during a public health crisis with immediate consequences for fertility rates.
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Registered trials
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