Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35507648›Full record

ArticleScience advances2022

The 2021 western North America heat wave among the most extreme events ever recorded globally.

Vikki Thompson, Alan T Kennedy-Asser, Emily Vosper, Y T Eunice Lo, Chris Huntingford, Oliver Andrews, Matthew Collins, Gabrielle C Hegerl, Dann Mitchell

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Science advances, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 43 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
43citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

43 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  8. Quantifying the contributions of climate change and adaptation to mortality from unprecedented extreme heat events.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
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  19. Global emergence of regional heatwave hotspots outpaces climate model simulations.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Vikki ThompsonSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-1650-7354
Alan T Kennedy-AsserSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-5143-8932
Emily VosperSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-2766-9823
Y T Eunice LoSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-7389-7272
Chris HuntingfordUK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-5941-7770
Oliver AndrewsSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Matthew CollinsCollege of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-3785-6008
Gabrielle C HegerlSchool of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Dann MitchellSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-0117-3486

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In June 2021, western North America experienced a record-breaking heat wave outside the distribution of previously observed temperatures. While it is clear that the event was extreme, it is not obvious whether other areas in the world have also experienced events so far outside their natural variability. Using a novel assessment of heat extremes, we investigate how extreme this event was in the global context. Characterizing the relative intensity of an event as the number of standard deviations from the mean, the western North America heat wave is remarkable, coming in at over four standard deviations. Throughout the globe, where we have reliable data, only five other heat waves were found to be more extreme since 1960. We find that in both reanalyses and climate projections, the statistical distribution of extremes increases through time, in line with the distribution mean shift due to climate change. Regions that, by chance, have not had a recent extreme heat wave may be less prepared for potentially imminent events.

Identifiers

PMID35507648
PMCPMC9067932

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.