ArticleBulletin of mathematical biology2022
Effect of Population Partitioning on the Probability of Silent Circulation of Poliovirus.
Article in Bulletin of mathematical biology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 1 citations in OpenAlex.
- Review of Poliovirus Transmission and Economic Modeling to Support Global Polio Eradication: 2020-2024.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Pooled it
- A silent epidemic? Poliomyelitis, disability burden, and social impact in Turkey (1942-1968).BMC public health · 2026Article
- Revealing the hidden burden: wastewater-based epidemiology for underreported and emerging infectious diseases in communities.Environmental monitoring and assessment · 2026Review
- Co-Administration of Novel Oral Polio Vaccine Type 2 and Bivalent Oral Polio Vaccine: Current Evidence, Challenges, and Implications for the Polio Eradication Endgame.Infection and drug resistance · 2026Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Polio can circulate unobserved in regions that are challenging to monitor. To assess the probability of silent circulation, simulation models can be used to understand transmission dynamics when detection is unreliable. Model assumptions, however, impact the estimated probability of silent circulation. Here, we examine the impact of having distinct populations, rather than a single well-mixed population, with a discrete-individual model including environmental surveillance. We show that partitioning a well-mixed population into networks of distinct communities may result in a higher probability of silent circulation as a result of the time it takes for the detection of a circulation event. Population structure should be considered when assessing polio control in a region with many loosely interacting communities.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.