ArticleBMC public health2022
Timely epidemic monitoring in the presence of reporting delays: anticipating the COVID-19 surge in New York City, September 2020.
Article in BMC public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Impact of temperature and humidity on SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2025Pooled it
- Quantifying, Understanding, and Correcting for Delays in Routine Dengue Case Reporting in the Americas.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2026Article
- Machine learning and probabilistic approaches for forecasting infectious disease transmission and cases.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2026Article
- Variation of healthcare associated infections at a tertiary hospital in Southwest China over a 5-year period (2019-2023): a retrospective observational study.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Observational
- A graph-theoretic framework for integrating mobility data into mathematical epidemic models.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Identification and attribution of weekly periodic biases in global epidemiological time series data.BMC research notes · 2025Article
- Serologic Evidence for Early SARS-CoV-2 Circulation in Lima, Peru, 2020.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2024Article
- Improved estimation of the effective reproduction number with heterogeneous transmission rates and reporting delays.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- A two-variant model of SARS-COV-2 transmission: estimating the characteristics of a newly emerging strain.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Article
- Use of Telehealth Information for Early Detection: Insights From the COVID-19 Pandemic.American journal of public health · 2024Observational
- Improved healthcare disaster decision-making utilizing information extraction from complementary social media data during the COVID-19 pandemic.Decision support systems · 2023Article
- Real-time estimation and forecasting of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in Wisconsin HERC regions for public health decision making processes.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Article
- Analysis of reporting lag in daily data of COVID-19 in Japan.Letters in spatial and resource sciences · 2023Article
- Uptake and effectiveness of a mobile application for real-time reporting and quality assurance of decentralized SARS-CoV-2 testing in Uganda.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- "Won't get fooled again": statistical fault detection in COVID-19 Latin American data.Globalization and health · 2022Article
- Detecting and mitigating simultaneous waves of COVID-19 infections.Scientific reports · 2022Article
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Abstract
backgroundDuring a fast-moving epidemic, timely monitoring of case counts and other key indicators of disease spread is critical to an effective public policy response.
methodsWe describe a nonparametric statistical method, originally applied to the reporting of AIDS cases in the 1980s, to estimate the distribution of reporting delays of confirmed COVID-19 cases in New York City during the late summer and early fall of 2020.
resultsDuring August 15-September 26, the estimated mean delay in reporting was 3.3 days, with 87% of cases reported by 5 days from diagnosis. Relying upon the estimated reporting-delay distribution, we projected COVID-19 incidence during the most recent 3 weeks as if each case had instead been reported on the same day that the underlying diagnostic test had been performed. Applying our delay-corrected estimates to case counts reported as of September 26, we projected a surge in new diagnoses that had already occurred but had yet to be reported. Our projections were consistent with counts of confirmed cases subsequently reported by November 7.
conclusionThe projected estimate of recently diagnosed cases could have had an impact on timely policy decisions to tighten social distancing measures. While the recent advent of widespread rapid antigen testing has changed the diagnostic testing landscape considerably, delays in public reporting of SARS-CoV-2 case counts remain an important barrier to effective public health policy.
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