Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35501713›Full record

ArticleBMC medical research methodology2022

A tutorial on the case time series design for small-area analysis.

Antonio Gasparrini

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC medical research methodology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 37 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
37citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

37 citing papers in PubMed.

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  5. Seasonality and effects of climatic exposures on community-acquired Legionnaires' disease incidence, Italy, 2005 to 2023.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2026
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  13. Mortality risk and burden associated with non-optimum temperatures in Puerto Rico.Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site] · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

1 author.

Antonio GasparriniDepartment of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), 15-17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH, UK. antonio.gasparrini@lshtm.ac.uk.

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/R013349/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe increased availability of data on health outcomes and risk factors collected at fine geographical resolution is one of the main reasons for the rising popularity of epidemiological analyses conducted at small-area level. However, this rich data setting poses important methodological issues related to modelling complexities and computational demands, as well as the linkage and harmonisation of data collected at different geographical levels.

methodsThis tutorial illustrated the extension of the case time series design, originally proposed for individual-level analyses on short-term associations with time-varying exposures, for applications using data aggregated over small geographical areas. The case time series design embeds the longitudinal structure of time series data within the self-matched framework of case-only methods, offering a flexible and highly adaptable analytical tool. The methodology is well suited for modelling complex temporal relationships, and it provides an efficient computational scheme for large datasets including longitudinal measurements collected at a fine geographical level.

resultsThe application of the case time series for small-area analyses is demonstrated using a real-data case study to assess the mortality risks associated with high temperature in the summers of 2006 and 2013 in London, UK. The example makes use of information on individual deaths, temperature, and socio-economic characteristics collected at different geographical levels. The tutorial describes the various steps of the analysis, namely the definition of the case time series structure and the linkage of the data, as well as the estimation of the risk associations and the assessment of vulnerability differences. R code and data are made available to fully reproduce the results and the graphical descriptions.

conclusionsThe extension of the case time series for small-area analysis offers a valuable analytical tool that combines modelling flexibility and computational efficiency. The increasing availability of data collected at fine geographical scales provides opportunities for its application to address a wide range of epidemiological questions.

Indexed as

EnvironmentHumansLondonSmall-Area AnalysisTime FactorsCase time seriesDistributed lag modelsSmall-areaStudy designTemperatureTime series

Identifiers

PMID35501713
PMCPMC9063281

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.