ArticleAddiction (Abingdon, England)2022
Assessing the impacts of alcohol outlets on crime as a natural experiment: agglomeration, churning and spatial effects.
Article in Addiction (Abingdon, England), 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed, 9 citations in OpenAlex.
- Does Housing Eviction Modify the Effects of Alcohol Outlet Density on Hospitalizations for Assault and Alcohol Use Disorder in Pennsylvania?Alcohol, clinical & experimental research · 2026Article
- Twenty-five-year changes in alcohol environment in US metropolitan areas: Examining patterns by area level sociodemographic characteristics.Cities (London, England) · 2025Article
- Interactive associations of cannabis and alcohol outlet densities with assault injuries in California: a spatiotemporal analysis.American journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Did the association between alcohol outlet density and crime change during COVID shelter-in-place orders?Drug and alcohol review · 2024Article
- Micro-temporal analyses of crime related to alcohol outlets: A comparison of outcomes over weekday, weekend, daytime and nighttime hours.Drug and alcohol review · 2023Article
- Commentary on Gruenewald et al.: 'Even one more license may be "too many"'?Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND
aimsRetail alcohol outlets appear to open in neighborhoods with low land and structure rents near sources of demand; they may 'agglomerate', open near to one another or 'churn', replace one another, over time. We used the turnover in numbers of outlets over time to measure agglomeration and churning and the impacts of openings and closings of outlets on neighborhood crime.
designInterrupted quasi-experiments using spatial panel population data from 3768 synthetic block areas over 6 years.
settingCity of Oakland, CA, USA.
participantsCity population. MEASUREMENTS: Census-based socio-demographic estimates and counts of openings and closings of bars/pubs, restaurants and off-premises outlets related to assault, burglary and robbery crime incidents across synthetic Census blocks. Bayesian space-time models were used to assess agglomeration and churning and measure impacts of openings/closings on crime.
findingsChurning was substantial; openings followed closings for all outlets [bars/pubs, relative risk (RR) = 50.9, 95% credible interval (CI) = 3.0-449.9; restaurants, RR = 3.1, CI = 1.5-6.1; off-premises, RR = 23.5, CI = 2.0-129.8]. Bars/pub and restaurant openings agglomerated with other outlets (e.g., RR = 1.02, CI = 1.00-1.03 and RR = 1.01, CI = 1.00-1.01), but off-premises outlets did not. Covarying out effects related to outlet densities, bar/pub openings were related to a 3.5% increase in assaults (RR = 1.04, CI = 1.01-1.06) and 6.9% increase in robberies (RR = 1.07, CI = 1.03-1.11). Restaurant openings were related to a 5.3% increase in burglaries (RR = 1.05, CI = 1.04-1.06). Openings and closings of off-premises outlets were unrelated to all three crime types.
conclusionsRetail alcohol outlets appear to follow a pattern of opening near to one another and replacing each other over time. Bar, pub and restaurant openings appear to be related to increases in neighborhood crime.
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Registered trials
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