Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35490396›Full record

Trial reportEpilepsia2022

Reappraisal of the Medical Research Council Antiepileptic Drug Withdrawal Study: Contamination-adjusted and dose-response re-analysis.

Samuel W Terman, Chang Wang, Lu Wang, Kees P J Braun, Willem M Otte, Geertruida Slinger, Wesley T Kerr, Morten I Lossius, Laura Bonnett, James F Burke and 1 more

Abstract readRandomized Controlled Trial
In one paragraph

Trial report in Epilepsia, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Trial
  2. Review
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. The sense of stopping migraine prophylaxis.The journal of headache and pain · 2023
    Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Samuel W TermanDepartment of Neurology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-6179-9467
Chang WangDepartment of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.
Lu WangDepartment of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.
Kees P J BraunDepartment of Child Neurology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Willem M OtteDepartment of Child Neurology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0003-1511-6834
Geertruida SlingerDepartment of Child Neurology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Wesley T KerrDepartment of Neurology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.
Morten I LossiusNational Center for Epilepsy, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway.
Laura BonnettDepartment of Health Data Science, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
James F BurkeDepartment of Neurology, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA.
Anthony MarsonDepartment of Pharmacology and Therapeutics, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-6861-8806

Funding

Michigan Institute for Clinical and Health Research (MICHR)UL1TR002240 · NCATS · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI LUMENG, JULIE C, MASHOUR, GEORGE ALEXANDER · 2017 to 2022
$54.9M
U.S. Deprescribing Research NetworkR24AG064025 · NIA · NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INSTITUTE/RES/EDU · PI BOYD, CYNTHIA MELINDA, STEINMAN, MICHAEL A. · 2019 to 2023
$9.9M
Translational Neuroscience Training GrantR25NS065723 · NINDS · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI CARMICHAEL, STANLEY THOMAS · 2009 to 2023
$2.8M
Reducing Racial Disparities in Post-Stroke Disability in the ElderlyR01MD008879 · NIMHD · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI BURKE, JAMES FRANCIS, SKOLARUS, LESLI ELIZABETH · 2014 to 2018
$1.9M
NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR002240NIA NIH HHS R24 AG064025NIMHD NIH HHS R01 MD008879NINDS NIH HHS R25 NS065723
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveThe 1991 Medical Research Council (MRC) Study compared seizure relapse for seizure-free patients randomized to withdraw vs continue of antiseizure medications (ASMs). We re-analyzed this trial to account for crossover between arms using contamination-adjusted intention to treat (CA ITT) methods, to explore dose-response curves, and to validate predictions against external data. ITT assesses the effect of being randomized to withdraw, as-treated analysis assesses the confounded effect of withdrawing, but CA ITT assesses the unconfounded effect of actually withdrawing.

methodsCA ITT involves two stages. First, we used randomized arm to predict whether patients withdrew their ASM (logistic) or total daily ASM dose (linear). Second, we used those values to predict seizure occurrence (logistic).

resultsThe trial randomized 503 patients to withdraw and 501 patients to continue ASMs. We found that 316 of 376 patients (88%) who were randomized to withdraw decreased their dose at every pre-seizure visit, compared with 35 of 424 (8%) who were randomized to continue (p < .01). Adjusted odds ratios of a 2-year seizure for those who withdrew vs those who did not was 1.3 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.9-1.9) in the as-treated analysis, 2.5 (95% CI 1.9-3.4) comparing those randomized to withdraw vs continue for ITT, and 3.1 (95% CI 2.1-4.5) for CA ITT. Probabilities (withdrawal vs continue) were 28% vs 24% (as-treated), 40% vs 22% (ITT), and 43% vs 21% (CA ITT). Differences between ITT and CA ITT were greater when varying the predictor (reaching zero ASMs) or outcome (1-year seizures). As-treated dose-response curves demonstrated little to no effects, but larger effects in CA ITT analysis. MRC data overpredicted risk in Lossius data, with moderate discrimination (areas under the curve ~0.70). SIGNIFICANCE: CA ITT results (the effect of actually withdrawing ASMs on seizures) were slightly greater than ITT effects (the effect of recommend withdrawing ASMs on seizures). How these findings affect clinical practice must be individualized.

Indexed as

Biomedical ResearchEpilepsies, PartialSubstance Withdrawal SyndromeAnticonvulsantsHumansSeizuresAnticonvulsantsantiseizure medicationclinical trialsdrug withdrawalepilepsyrisk prediction

Identifiers

PMID35490396
PMCPMC9283317

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.