Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35482879›Full record

ArticleScience (New York, N.Y.)2022

Rabies shows how scale of transmission can enable acute infections to persist at low prevalence.

Rebecca Mancy, Malavika Rajeev, Ahmed Lugelo, Kirstyn Brunker, Sarah Cleaveland, Elaine A Ferguson, Karen Hotopp, Rudovick Kazwala, Matthias Magoto, Kristyna Rysava and 2 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Science (New York, N.Y.), 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
22citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

22 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Rebecca MancyInstitute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-4667-9229
Malavika RajeevDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-6030-4995
Ahmed LugeloDepartment of Veterinary Medicine and Public Health, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania.ORCID 0000-0003-1722-4329
Kirstyn BrunkerInstitute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9990-6299
Sarah CleavelandInstitute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-0456-0959
Elaine A FergusonInstitute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-2010-765X
Karen HotoppInstitute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
Rudovick KazwalaDepartment of Veterinary Medicine and Public Health, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania.
Matthias MagotoSerengeti District Veterinary Office, Mugumu, Tanzania.
Kristyna RysavaThe Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Warwick, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-3475-931X
Daniel T HaydonInstitute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-1240-1886
Katie HampsonInstitute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-5392-6884

Funding

Wellcome Trust 095787Wellcome Trust 207569Wellcome Trust 207569/Z/17/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

How acute pathogens persist and what curtails their epidemic growth in the absence of acquired immunity remains unknown. Canine rabies is a fatal zoonosis that circulates endemically at low prevalence among domestic dogs in low- and middle-income countries. We traced rabies transmission in a population of 50,000 dogs in Tanzania from 2002 to 2016 and applied individual-based models to these spatially resolved data to investigate the mechanisms modulating transmission and the scale over which they operate. Although rabies prevalence never exceeded 0.15%, the best-fitting models demonstrated appreciable depletion of susceptible animals that occurred at local scales because of clusters of deaths and dogs already incubating infection. Individual variation in rabid dog behavior facilitated virus dispersal and cocirculation of virus lineages, enabling metapopulation persistence. These mechanisms have important implications for prediction and control of pathogens that circulate in spatially structured populations.

Indexed as

RabiesAnimalsDogsPrevalenceTanzaniaZoonoses

Identifiers

PMID35482879
PMCPMC7613728

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.