ArticleBMJ open2022
Projected impact of change in the percentage of energy from each NOVA group intake on cardiovascular disease mortality in Brazil: a modelling study.
Article in BMJ open, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Influence of Sleep Time on the Consumption of Ultra-Processed Foods in Adolescents in a Capital of Brazil: A Longitudinal Study.Nutrients · 2024Article
- The 30-year cardiovascular risk trajectories and their independently associated factors in participants of a Brazilian cohort (CUME Study).Cadernos de saude publica · 2023Article
- The estimated burden of ultra-processed foods on cardiovascular disease outcomes in Brazil: A modeling study.Frontiers in nutrition · 2022Article
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10 authors.
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Abstract
objectiveEstimate reductions in cardiovascular mortality achievable through improvement in nutrient intakes according to processing level (NOVA classification), that is, reducing consumption of culinary ingredients (G2), processed (G3) and ultra-processed foods (G4) while encouraging consumption of unprocessed and minimally processed foods (G1).
designModelling study.
settingGeneral adult population of Brazil.
participantsMen and women aged 25 or more years (34 003) investigated in the Household Budget Survey 2017-2018, in the consumption data module.
main outcome measuresWe used the IMPACT Food Policy Model to estimate the reduction in deaths from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) up to 2048 in five scenarios with reductions in saturated fat, trans fat, salt and added sugar intakes resulting from changes in NOVA groups. (1) The optimistic scenario modelised an increase in the energy intake provided by G1 and a reduction in the energy intake from G2, G3 and G4, return to previous levels. (2) The minimal scenario modelised a 3.7% increase in the energy intake from G1, and a reduction in the energy intake from G4 to the 2008-2009 level. (3) The modest scenario only modelised a 25.0% reduction of the energy intake from G2 and G3. (4) The intermediary scenario modelised the minimal scenario plus a 25.0% reduction in the energy intake from G2. (5) Finally, the advanced scenario modelised the minimal scenario plus a 25.0% reduction in the energy intake from G2 and G3.
resultsProposed changes in the optimistic scenario could prevent or delay 52.8% CVD-related deaths by 2048. Changes modelled in the minimal, modest, intermediary and advanced scenarios may result in a 10.1%, 28.4%, 31.4% and 38.6% reduction in 2048 CVD mortality, respectively.
conclusionsSubstantial health gains can be achieved by improving the diet, through plausible modifications aimed at the level of processing as a tool for Brazilian food policies.
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