ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2022
Phenological sensitivity and seasonal variability explain climate-driven trends in Mediterranean butterflies.
Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 28 citations in OpenAlex.
- Untangling the Complexity of Climate Change Effects on Plant Reproductive Traits and Pollinators: A Systematic Global Synthesis.Global change biology · 2025Pooled it
- Contrasting phenological shifts in diurnal and nocturnal Lepidoptera under climate change.Communications biology · 2026Article
- Three Decades of Butterfly-Plant Interaction Turnover Explained by Climate and Species Loss.Ecology letters · 2026Article
- Implications of summer breeding phenology on demography of monarch butterflies.The Journal of animal ecology · 2025Article
- High voltinism, late-emerging butterflies are sensitive to interannual variation in spring temperature in North Carolina.Environmental entomology · 2025Article
- Article
- Weather anomalies more important than climate means in driving insect phenology.Communications biology · 2023Article
- Phenological sensitivity and seasonal variability explain climate-driven trends in Mediterranean butterflies.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Although climate-driven phenological shifts have been documented for many taxa across the globe, we still lack knowledge of the consequences they have on populations. Here, we used a comprehensive database comprising 553 populations of 51 species of north-western Mediterranean butterflies to investigate the relationship between phenology and population trends in a 26-year period. Phenological trends and sensitivity to climate, along with various species traits, were used to predict abundance trends. Key ecological traits accounted for a general decline of more than half of the species, most of which, surprisingly, did not change their phenology under a climate warming scenario. However, this was related to the regional cooling in a short temporal window that includes late winter and early spring, during which most species concentrate their development. Finally, we demonstrate that phenological sensitivity-but not phenological trends-predicted population trends, and argue that species that best adjust their phenology to inter-annual climate variability are more likely to maintain a synchronization with trophic resources, thereby mitigating possible negative effects of climate change. Our results reflect the importance of assessing not only species' trends over time but also species' abilities to respond to a changing climate based on their sensitivity to temperature.
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