ArticleEpidemics2022
A wastewater-based epidemic model for SARS-CoV-2 with application to three Canadian cities.
Article in Epidemics, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 52 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
52 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 118 citations in OpenAlex.
- Systematic review and meta-analysis of enteric virus shedding in human excretions.EBioMedicine · 2025Pooled it
- Recent progress on wastewater-based epidemiology for COVID-19 surveillance: A systematic review of analytical procedures and epidemiological modeling.The Science of the total environment · 2023Pooled it
- A Wastewater-based Modeling Framework for Inferring Norovirus Transmission Dynamics.Environmental science & technology · 2026Article
- Coupled epidemiological and wastewater modeling at the urban scale: A case study for Munich.iScience · 2026Article
- Wastewater-Based Epidemiology for Infectious Diseases: A New Trick for an Old Threat.Environment & health (Washington, D.C.) · 2026Review
- Real-time estimation of pathogen transmission dynamics from wastewater.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Economic evaluation of wastewater surveillance in Ontario, Canada, using COVID-19 as a case study.Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada · 2026Article
- Comparing Wastewater-Based and Case-BasedEpidemiology and infection · 2026Article
- SARS-CoV-2 wastewater genomic surveillance: approaches, challenges, and opportunities.Genome biology · 2026Review
- SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance in a central Chinese metropolis: variant responses and correlation with clinical cases.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Association between SARS-CoV-2 levels in urban wastewater and reported COVID-19 cases in Changsha, Central China.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- A targeted tiled amplicon sequencing approach for clade and subclade level differentiation of monkeypox virus from wastewater.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Post-recovery viral shedding shapes wastewater-based epidemiological inferences.Communications medicine · 2025Article
- The use of wastewater surveillance to estimate SARS-CoV-2 fecal viral shedding pattern and identify time periods with intensified transmission.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Epidemiological model can forecast COVID-19 outbreaks from wastewater-based surveillance in rural communities.Water research · 2025Article
- Mathematical modelling for pandemic preparedness in Canada: Learning from COVID-19.Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada · 2024Article
- Article
- Jointly estimating epidemiological dynamics of Covid-19 from case and wastewater data in Aotearoa New Zealand.Communications medicine · 2024Article
- Estimating the COVID-19 prevalence from wastewater.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Statistical analysis of three data sources for Covid-19 monitoring in Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany.Scientific reports · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
16 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has stimulated wastewater-based surveillance, allowing public health to track the epidemic by monitoring the concentration of the genetic fingerprints of SARS-CoV-2 shed in wastewater by infected individuals. Wastewater-based surveillance for COVID-19 is still in its infancy. In particular, the quantitative link between clinical cases observed through traditional surveillance and the signals from viral concentrations in wastewater is still developing and hampers interpretation of the data and actionable public-health decisions. We present a modelling framework that includes both SARS-CoV-2 transmission at the population level and the fate of SARS-CoV-2 RNA particles in the sewage system after faecal shedding by infected persons in the population. Using our mechanistic representation of the combined clinical/wastewater system, we perform exploratory simulations to quantify the effect of surveillance effectiveness, public-health interventions and vaccination on the discordance between clinical and wastewater signals. We also apply our model to surveillance data from three Canadian cities to provide wastewater-informed estimates for the actual prevalence, the effective reproduction number and incidence forecasts. We find that wastewater-based surveillance, paired with this model, can complement clinical surveillance by supporting the estimation of key epidemiological metrics and hence better triangulate the state of an epidemic using this alternative data source.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.