ArticleScientific reports2022
A new estimation method for COVID-19 time-varying reproduction number using active cases.
Article in Scientific reports, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed.
- A filtering approach for statistical inference in a stochastic SIR model with an application to Covid-19 data.Biostatistics (Oxford, England) · 2025Article
- Mathematical models to characterize the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in New Mexico, USA.Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE · 2025Article
- A flexible framework for local-level estimation of the effective reproductive number in geographic regions with sparse data.BMC medical research methodology · 2025Article
- A Flexible Framework for Local-Level Estimation of the Effective Reproductive Number in Geographic Regions with Sparse Data.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Time-varying reproduction number estimation: fusing compartmental models with generalized additive models.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Article
- SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Mozambique and Zimbabwe during the first 3 years of the pandemic.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Bayesian model selection for COVID-19 pandemic state estimation using extended Kalman filters: Case study for Saudi Arabia.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Estimating the instantaneous reproduction number (Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Using spectral characterization to identify healthcare-associated infection (HAI) patients for clinical contact precaution.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Mathematical Modelling of Virus Spreading in COVID-19.Viruses · 2023Article
- Kalman-based compartmental estimation for covid-19 pandemic using advanced epidemic model.Biomedical signal processing and control · 2023Article
- Analysis of mathematical model involving nonlinear systems of Caputo-Fabrizio fractional differential equation.Boundary value problems · 2023Article
- Review
- Attention based parameter estimation and states forecasting of COVID-19 pandemic using modified SIQRD Model.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2022Article
- A compartmental epidemic model incorporating probable cases to model COVID-19 outbreak in regions with limited testing capacity.ISA transactions · 2022Article
- Data-driven modeling and forecasting of COVID-19 outbreak for public policy making.ISA transactions · 2022Article
- COVID-19 Classification from Chest X-Ray Images: A Framework of Deep Explainable Artificial Intelligence.Computational intelligence and neuroscience · 2022Article
- Extended Kalman filter based on stochastic epidemiological model for COVID-19 modelling.Computers in biology and medicine · 2021Article
- Mathematical analysis of SIRD model of COVID-19 with Caputo fractional derivative based on real data.Results in physics · 2021Article
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7 authors.
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Abstract
We propose a new method to estimate the time-varying effective (or instantaneous) reproduction number of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The method is based on a discrete-time stochastic augmented compartmental model that describes the virus transmission. A two-stage estimation method, which combines the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to estimate the reported state variables (active and removed cases) and a low pass filter based on a rational transfer function to remove short term fluctuations of the reported cases, is used with case uncertainties that are assumed to follow a Gaussian distribution. Our method does not require information regarding serial intervals, which makes the estimation procedure simpler without reducing the quality of the estimate. We show that the proposed method is comparable to common approaches, e.g., age-structured and new cases based sequential Bayesian models. We also apply it to COVID-19 cases in the Scandinavian countries: Denmark, Sweden, and Norway, where the positive rates were below 5% recommended by WHO.
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