ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2022
Trends and Determinants of Cigarette Tax Increases in Japan: The Role of Revenue Targeting.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Evaluating trends in cigarette and HTP use in Japan and measurement issues in the National Health and Nutrition Survey.Tobacco control · 2025Observational
- Quantifying the contributions of cardiovascular risk factors to cardiovascular disease trends in 21st century Japan: a microsimulation study.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
- Birth cohort-specific smoking patterns in Japan (1906-2004): a population-based study from the NC-CCAPH consortium.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
- Switching from Cigarettes to Heated Tobacco Products in Japan-Potential Impact on Health Outcomes and Associated Health Care Costs.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
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2 authors.
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Abstract
Cigarette prices in Japan are lower than those in most other high-income countries. A more striking fact is that cigarette tax revenues have been kept almost flat at just over two trillion JPY (Japanese yen; 18.2 billion US dollars) over more than three decades, despite steadily declining cigarette sales and seemingly weakening pressure from stakeholders with a vested interest in the tobacco industry. We attempted to examine trends and determinants of cigarette tax increases in Japan. In particular, we hypothesized that the Japanese finance ministry adjusts cigarette taxes to meet a revenue target. Under this hypothesis, we searched for the most plausible amount of the minimum target of tax revenue that corresponds to cigarette tax increases over the past 37 years (1985-2021) using public data on cigarette sales and taxes. The results revealed that two trillion JPY was the minimal revenue target that could plausibly explain the increase in cigarette tax. In addition, the timing and magnitude of cigarette tax increases have been successfully set to maintain stable tax revenues. A key determinant of cigarette tax increases in Japan has been hard revenue targets, rather than public health concerns.
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