ArticleFoods (Basel, Switzerland)2022
Development of a Predictive Model for Agave Prices Employing Environmental, Economic, and Social Factors: Towards a Planned Supply Chain for Agave-Tequila Industry.
Article in Foods (Basel, Switzerland), 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- A Hierarchical RF-XGBoost Model for Short-Cycle Agricultural Product Sales Forecasting.Foods (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Evaluation of the Environmental Performance of Adsorbent Materials Prepared from Agave Bagasse for Water Remediation: Solid Waste Management Proposal of the Tequila Industry.Materials (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The interest of consumers to acquire Tequila has caused an increase in its sales. As demand increases, the Tequila industry must obtain its raw material at a constant rate and agave farmers must be prepared to satisfy this supply chain. Because of this, modernization of the strategies used to ensure a planned, scheduled, timely, and predictable production will allow farmers to maintain the current demand for Tequila. This has been evidenced in official historical records from 1999 to 2020 where there is a fluctuation in the price of agave due to supply and demand. Given this scenario, this research shows the development of a multivariable predictive mathematical model that will permit the agave−Tequila production chain to work based on a smart implementation of planned actions to guarantee the agave supply to the Tequila industry. The proposed model has a goodness of fit (R = 0.8676; R¯2 = 0.8609; F(1,20) = 131.01 > F0.01 (1,20) = 8.10) and demonstrates the impact on agave prices is due to several factors: Tequila exports (α = 0.50) > agave plants harvested “jima” (α = 0.44) > dollar exchange (α = 0.43) > Tequila production (α = 0.06) > annual accumulated precipitation (α = 0.05). Nevertheless, the price forecast can be influenced by climate change or economic crises that affect the supply chain. In conclusion, a prediction of agave price stabilization for five years is shown where authorized producers can evaluate future scenarios so that the agave supply chain can be guaranteed for Tequila production, facilitating the decision making regarding its raw material.
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Registered trials
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