Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35450123›Full record

ArticleFrontiers in public health2022

Forecasting Obesity and Type 2 Diabetes Incidence and Burden: The ViLA-Obesity Simulation Model.

Roch A Nianogo, Onyebuchi A Arah

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Frontiers in public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
35citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
10.1field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

35 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 58 citations in OpenAlex.

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  15. Enhanced fatty acid oxidation in osteoprogenitor cells provides protection from high-fat diet induced bone dysfunction.Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.

Roch A NianogoDepartment of Epidemiology, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Los Angeles, CA, United States.
Onyebuchi A ArahDepartment of Epidemiology, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Los Angeles, CA, United States.
Aarhus University · DKUniversity of California, Los Angeles · US

Funding

Statistics and Methods CoreR24HD041022 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI SELTZER, JUDITH A. · 2001 to 2016
$10.1M
The impact of natural experiments on child obesity: A systems science approachR01HD072296 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI PRELIP, MICHAEL LEE, WANG, MAY C · 2013 to 2017
$2.4M
NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD072296NICHD NIH HHS R24 HD041022
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Obesity is a major public health problem affecting millions of Americans and is considered one of the most potent risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Assessing future disease burden is important for informing policy-decision making for population health and healthcare. Objective: The aim of this study was to develop a computer model of a cohort of children born in Los Angeles County to study the life course incidence and trends of obesity and its effect on type 2 diabetes mellitus. Methods: We built the Virtual Los Angeles cohort-ViLA, an agent-based model calibrated to the population of Los Angeles County. In particular, we developed the ViLA-Obesity model, a simulation suite within our ViLA platform that integrated trends in the causes and consequences of obesity, focusing on diabetes as a key obesity consequence during the life course. Each agent within the model exhibited obesity- and diabetes-related healthy and unhealthy behaviors such as sugar-sweetened beverage consumption, physical activity, fast-food consumption, fresh fruits, and vegetable consumption. In addition, agents could gain or lose weight and develop type 2 diabetes mellitus with a certain probability dependent on the agent's socio-demographics, past behaviors and past weight or type 2 diabetes status. We simulated 98,230 inhabitants from birth to age 65 years, living in 235 neighborhoods. Results: The age-specific incidence of obesity generally increased from 10 to 30% across the life span with two notable peaks at age 6-12 and 30-39 years, while that of type 2 diabetes mellitus generally increased from <2% at age 18-24 to reach a peak of 25% at age 40-49. The 16-year risks of obesity were 32.1% (95% CI: 31.8%, 32.4%) for children aged 2-17 and 81% (95% CI: 80.8%, 81.3%) for adults aged 18-65. The 48-year risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus was 53.4% (95% CI: 53.1%, 53.7%) for adults aged 18-65. Conclusion: This ViLA-Obesity model provides an insight into the future burden of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus in Los Angeles County, one of the most diverse places in the United States. It serves as a platform for conducting experiments for informing evidence-based policy-making.

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2AdolescentAdultChildComputer SimulationExerciseHumansIncidenceMiddle AgedObesityUnited StatesYoung Adultagent-based modelobesitypredictionsimulationtype 2 diabetes

Identifiers

PMID35450123
PMCPMC9016163
OpenAlexW4226228696

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.