ArticlePloS one2022
Performance of clinician prediction of survival in oncology outpatients with advanced cancer.
Article in PloS one, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Prognostic models for survival predictions in advanced cancer patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC palliative care · 2025Pooled it
- The impact of a web-based prognostic calculator on prognostic confidence in outpatient palliative care.Supportive care in cancer : official journal of the Multinational Association of Supportive Care in Cancer · 2024Article
- Clinicians' Perspectives on the Telehealth Serious Illness Care Program for Older Adults With Myeloid Malignancies: Single-Arm Pilot Study.JMIR formative research · 2024Article
- Artificial intelligence across oncology specialties: current applications and emerging tools.BMJ oncology · 2024Review
- Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Into Cancer Clinical Trials.Seminars in radiation oncology · 2023Review
- Factors and Barriers to Goals-of-Care Conversations for Patients With Cancer and Inpatient Mortality.JCO oncology practice · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
14 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundWe aimed to investigate the performance of clinician prediction of survival (CPS) and the association between CPS and the prognostic confidence of clinicians in ambulatory medical oncology outpatients.
methodsEight medical oncologists estimated the expected survival of their patients in a prospective cohort study. They were asked to provide a temporal type of CPS in weeks, together with their level of confidence for each prediction (0-100%). We analyzed the accuracy of CPS, the association between CPS and the prognostic confidence, and the characteristics of patients showing inaccurate CPS.
resultsA total of 200 advanced cancer patients were enrolled and the median overall survival was 7.6 months. CPS was accurate in 67 (33.5%) patients, underestimated in 87 (43.5%), and overestimated in 46 (23.0%). The overall accuracy of CPS for 12-week, 24-week, 36-week, and 48-week survival was 83.0%, 72.0%, 75.5%, and 74.0%, respectively. The specificity was highest for 12-week survival (90.2%) and the sensitivity was highest for 48-week survival (96.1%). The sensitivity of 12-week CPS was 51.4% and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was 0.79 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.71-0.87). The prognostic confidence of clinicians was not significantly associated with the accuracy of prediction (P = 0.359). Patients with overestimated survival had significantly poorer global health status and physical/role/emotional functioning in the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30 (EORTC QLQ-C30). Additionally, they showed significantly higher levels of fatigue, nausea/vomiting, pain, dyspnea, and loss of appetite.
conclusionThe overall accuracy of CPS in predicting 12-week to 48-week survival was high in medical oncology outpatients. However the sensitivity of 12-week CPS was low and prognostic confidence was not associated with the accuracy of CPS. Patients with overestimated CPS showed poorer quality of life and higher symptom burden.
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