ArticleAnnals of the Royal College of Surgeons of England2023
Prediction of long-term dependence on vitamin D analogues following total thyroidectomy for Graves' disease.
Article in Annals of the Royal College of Surgeons of England, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
introductionThis study aimed to identify patients at risk of long-term hypocalcaemia following total thyroidectomy for Graves' disease, and to determine the thresholds of postoperative day 1 serum calcium and parathyroid hormone (PTH) at which long-term activated vitamin D treatment can be safely excluded.
methodsThis study was a retrospective analysis of 115 consecutive patients undergoing total thyroidectomy for Graves' disease at a university referral centre between 2010 and 2018. Outcome measures were the day 1 postoperative adjusted calcium and PTH results, and vitamin D analogue need at 6 months postoperatively. Logistic receiver operating curves were used to identify optimal cut-off values for adjusted serum calcium and serum PTH, and sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated.
resultsTemporary hypocalcaemia was observed in 20.9% of patients (mean day 1 serum adjusted calcium 2.2±0.14mmol/l and PTH 4.15±2.42pmol/l). Long-term (>6 months) activated vitamin D analogue therapy was required in five patients (4.3%), four of whom had normal serum PTH and one with undetectable PTH at 6 weeks post surgery. No patient with a day 1 postoperative calcium >2.05mmol/l and detectable PTH required vitamin D supplementation at 6 months post surgery (100% sensitivity, PPV 50%, NPV 100%).
conclusionsThe biochemical postoperative day 1 thresholds identified in this paper have a 100% NPV in the identification of patients who are likely to require either no or only temporary activated vitamin D supplementation. We were able to identify all patients requiring activated vitamin D supplementation 6 months postoperatively from the day 1 postoperative serum calcium and PTH values, while excluding those that may only need temporary calcium supplementation. These threshold levels could be used for targeted follow-up and management of this subset of patients most at risk of long-term hypocalcaemia.
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