Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35444178›Full record

ArticleNature communications2022

Solar geoengineering could redistribute malaria risk in developing countries.

Colin J Carlson, Rita Colwell, Mohammad Sharif Hossain, Mohammed Mofizur Rahman, Alan Robock, Sadie J Ryan, Mohammad Shafiul Alam, Christopher H Trisos

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
10citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

10 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Robust Solar Radiation Modification Strategy for Achieving Temperature Targets.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2026
    Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Impact of solar geoengineering on temperature-attributable mortality.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
    Article
  6. Spatial spillovers of violent conflict amplify the impacts of climate variability on malaria risk in sub-Saharan Africa.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
    Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Colin J CarlsonDepartment of Microbiology and Immunology, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC, 20057, USA. colin.carlson@georgetown.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6960-8434
Rita ColwellUniversity of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5432-1502
Mohammad Sharif HossainInfectious Diseases Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka, Bangladesh.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9876-7722
Mohammed Mofizur RahmanInstitute for Technology and Resources Management in the Tropics and Subtropics, Cologne University of Applied Sciences, Cologne, Germany.
Alan RobockDepartment of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6319-5656
Sadie J RyanQuantitative Disease Ecology and Conservation (QDEC) Lab Group, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32610, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4308-6321
Mohammad Shafiul AlamInfectious Diseases Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b), Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Christopher H TrisosAfrican Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa. christopher.trisos@uct.ac.za.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5854-1489

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Solar geoengineering is often framed as a stopgap measure to decrease the magnitude, impacts, and injustice of climate change. However, the benefits or costs of geoengineering for human health are largely unknown. We project how geoengineering could impact malaria risk by comparing current transmission suitability and populations-at-risk under moderate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) with and without geoengineering. We show that if geoengineering deployment cools the tropics, it could help protect high elevation populations in eastern Africa from malaria encroachment, but could increase transmission in lowland sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia. Compared to extreme warming, we find that by 2070, geoengineering would nullify a projected reduction of nearly one billion people at risk of malaria. Our results indicate that geoengineering strategies designed to offset warming are not guaranteed to unilaterally improve health outcomes, and could produce regional trade-offs among Global South countries that are often excluded from geoengineering conversations.

Indexed as

Developing CountriesMalariaAfrica, EasternClimate ChangeHumansSunlight

Identifiers

PMID35444178
PMCPMC9021229

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.