ArticleNature communications2022
Seismic precursors to the Whakaari 2019 phreatic eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes.
Article in Nature communications, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Socio-economic value of data-driven eruption forecasts to balance false alarms against catastrophic loss.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Jerk, a promising tool for early warning of volcanic eruptions.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Ergodic seismic precursors and transfer learning for short term eruption forecasting at data scarce volcanoes.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Understanding and forecasting sudden explosive eruptions.Bulletin of volcanology · 2025Article
- Phreatic eruptions at Whakaari Volcano driven by hydrothermal mineralisation and magmatic gas input.Communications earth & environment · 2025Article
- Tephra fallout hazard assessment for a hydrovolcanic eruptive scenario in Mayotte.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Tracking volcanic explosions using Shannon entropy at Volcán de Colima.Scientific reports · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Volcanic eruptions that occur without warning can be deadly in touristic and populated areas. Even with real-time geophysical monitoring, forecasting sudden eruptions is difficult, because their precursors are hard to recognize and can vary between volcanoes. Here, we describe a general seismic precursor signal for gas-driven eruptions, identified through correlation analysis of 18 well-recorded eruptions in New Zealand, Alaska, and Kamchatka. The precursor manifests in the displacement seismic amplitude ratio between medium (4.5-8 Hz) and high (8-16 Hz) frequency tremor bands, exhibiting a characteristic rise in the days prior to eruptions. We interpret this as formation of a hydrothermal seal that enables rapid pressurization of shallow groundwater. Applying this model to the 2019 eruption at Whakaari (New Zealand), we describe pressurization of the system in the week before the eruption, and cascading seal failure in the 16 h prior to the explosion. Real-time monitoring for this precursor may improve short-term eruption warning systems at certain volcanoes.
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Registered trials
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