ArticleGlobal change biology2022
Identifying climate refugia for high-elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions.
Article in Global change biology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.
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18 citing papers in PubMed, 90 citations in OpenAlex.
- Climate Change Predicted to Trigger an Upward Altitudinal Range Shift and Boost the Abundance of a Montane Rock Face Specialist, the Wallcreeper (Ecology and evolution · 2026Article
- Bridging the vertical mismatch: elevation-dependent drivers and conservation strategies for mountain biodiversity.National science review · 2026Article
- Functional distinctiveness and rarity highlight climate vulnerability of mountain birds.Ecology · 2026Article
- Assessing protected areas as climate refugia for threatened plant species in Britain.PloS one · 2026Article
- Climate change refugia in Canadian prairies: assessing range shifts and identifying breeding habitats for grassland songbirds.Environmental monitoring and assessment · 2025Article
- Range size and abundance dynamics of Japanese breeding birds over 40 years suggest a potential crisis in warm areas.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- High-resolution habitat suitability maps for all widespread Italian breeding bird species.Scientific data · 2025Article
- Small scale, elevation- and environmental-related differences in life history strategies in a temperate resident songbird.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Article
- Climate-driven distribution shifts of Iranian amphibians and identification of refugia and hotspots for effective conservation.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Does Climate Change Pose a Threat to the Guild Mimicry System of Australian Orchids?Ecology and evolution · 2024Article
- An Assessment of the Climate Change Impacts on the Distribution of the Glacial Relict Woodpecker Three-Toed WoodpeckerAnimals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2024Article
- Glacier retreat reorganizes river habitats leaving refugia for Alpine invertebrate biodiversity poorly protected.Nature ecology & evolution · 2023Article
- Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Threatened Fishing BatAnimals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2023Article
- Conservation planning for the endemic and endangered medicinal plants under the climate change and human disturbance: a case study ofFrontiers in plant science · 2023Article
- Environmental Niche Modelling Predicts a Contraction in the Potential Distribution of Two Boreal Owl Species under Different Climate Scenarios.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2022Article
- Article
- Identifying climate refugia for high-elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions.Global change biology · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
12 authors at 7 institutions in 5 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Identifying climate refugia is key to effective biodiversity conservation under a changing climate, especially for mountain-specialist species adapted to cold conditions and highly threatened by climate warming. We combined species distribution models (SDMs) with climate forecasts to identify climate refugia for high-elevation bird species (Lagopus muta, Anthus spinoletta, Prunella collaris, Montifringilla nivalis) in the European Alps, where the ecological effects of climate changes are particularly evident and predicted to intensify. We considered future (2041-2070) conditions (SSP585 scenario, four climate models) and identified three types of refugia: (1) in-situ refugia potentially suitable under both current and future climate conditions, ex-situ refugia suitable (2) only in the future according to all future conditions, or (3) under at least three out of four future conditions. SDMs were based on a very large, high-resolution occurrence dataset (2901-12,601 independent records for each species) collected by citizen scientists. SDMs were fitted using different algorithms, balancing statistical accuracy, ecological realism and predictive/extrapolation ability. We selected the most reliable ones based on consistency between training and testing data and extrapolation over distant areas. Future predictions revealed that all species (with the partial exception of A. spinoletta) will undergo a range contraction towards higher elevations, losing 17%-59% of their current range (larger losses in L. muta). We identified ~15,000 km
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