ArticleCMAJ open
Efficacy of a "stay-at-home" policy on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Toronto, Canada: a mathematical modelling study.
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Article in CMAJ open. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Increasing physical activity among adults affected by COVID-19 social distancing restrictions: A feasibility trial of an online intervention.Journal of behavioral medicine · 2024Trial
- Retrospective analysis of age-specific non-pharmaceutical interventions on wild-type SARS-CoV-2 in Canada.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Modeling and inference of mixed dynamics and detection of causal emergent features.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Article
- Examining the effects of voluntary avoidance behaviour and policy-mediated behaviour change on the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2: A mathematical model.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Alberta, British Columbia, and Ontario, Canada, January 2020-January 2022.Emerging infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Forecast of peak infection and estimate of excess deaths in COVID-19 transmission and prevalence in Taiyuan City, 2022 to 2023.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Assessing the mechanism of citywide test-trace-isolate Zero-COVID policy and exit strategy of COVID-19 pandemic.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2022Article
- [Development of specific guidance for the safe opening and operation of recreational destinations under pandemic conditions].Zentralblatt fur Arbeitsmedizin, Arbeitsschutz und Ergonomie · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
18 authors.
Pei YuanCanadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB.
Juan LiCanadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB.
Elena AruffoCanadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB.
Evgenia GatovCanadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB.
Qi LiCanadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB.
Tingting ZhengCanadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB.
Nicholas H OgdenCanadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB.
Beate SanderCanadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB.
Jane HeffernanCanadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB.
Sarah CollierCanadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB.
Yi TanCanadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB.
Jun LiCanadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB.
Julien ArinoCanadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB.
Jacques BélairCanadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB.
James WatmoughCanadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB.
Jude Dzevela KongCanadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB.
Iain MoylesCanadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB.
Huaiping ZhuCanadian Centre for Disease Modeling (Yuan, Juan Li, Aruffo, Q. Li, Zheng, Heffernan, Tan, Jun Li, Arino, Bélair, Watmough, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), and Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Yuan, Aruffo, Heffernan, Tan, Kong, Moyles, Zhu), York University, Toronto, Ont.; Complex Systems Research Center (Juan Li), Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China; Toronto Public Health (Gatov, Collier), City of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; Department of Mathematics (Q. Li), Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China; College of Mathematics and System Science (Zheng), Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China; Public Health Risk Sciences Division (Ogden), National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, Sainte-Hyacinthe, Que.; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative (Sander), University Health Network; Dalla Lana School of Public Health (Sander), University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.; School of Mathematics and Statistics (Jun Li), Xidian University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China; Department of Mathematics (Arino), University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Man.; Département de mathématiques et de statistique (Bélair), Université de Montréal, Montréal, Que.; Department of Mathematics and Statistics (Watmough), University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, NB huaiping@yorku.ca.
Funding
CIHR
Abstract
backgroundGlobally, nonpharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19, including stay-at-home policies, limitations on gatherings and closure of public spaces, are being lifted. We explored the effect of lifting a stay-at-home policy on virus resurgence under different conditions.
methodsUsing confirmed case data from Toronto, Canada, between Feb. 24 and June 24, 2020, we ran a compartmental model with household structure to simulate the impact of the stay-at-home policy considering different levels of compliance. We estimated threshold values for the maximum number of contacts, probability of transmission and testing rates required for the safe reopening of the community.
resultsAfter the implementation of the stay-at-home policy, the contact rate outside the household fell by 39% (from 11.58 daily contacts to 7.11). The effective reproductive number decreased from 3.56 (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.02-4.14) on Mar. 12 to 0.84 (95% CI 0.79-0.89) on May 6. Strong adherence to stay-at-home policies appeared to prevent SARS-CoV-2 resurgence, but extending the duration of stay-at-home policies beyond 2 months had little added effect on cumulative cases (25 958 for 65 days of a stay-at-home policy and 23 461 for 95 days, by July 2, 2020) and deaths (1404 for 65 days and 1353 for 95 days). To avoid a resurgence, the average number of contacts per person per day should be kept below 9, with strict nonpharmaceutical interventions in place.
interpretationOur study demonstrates that the stay-at-home policy implemented in Toronto in March 2020 had a substantial impact on mitigating the spread of SARS-CoV-2. In the context of the early pandemic, before the emergence of variants of concern, reopening schools and workplaces was possible only with other nonpharmaceutical interventions in place.
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COVID-19SARS-CoV-2CanadaHumansPandemicsPolicy
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