A nomogram for predicting post-operative wound complications after open reduction and internal fixation for calcaneal fractures.

The purpose of our study was to determine the risk factors for post-operative wound complications (PWCs) after open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF) for calcaneal fracture and establish a nomogram prediction model. We retrospectively analysed the clinical data of patients who suffered from calcaneal fractures and had been surgically treated for ORIF in our institution between January 2010 and January 2020. Perioperative information was obtained through the electronic medical record system, univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine the risk factors of PWCs, and a nomogram model was constructed to predict the risk of PWCs. The predictive performance and consistency of the model were evaluated by the Hosmer -Lemeshow (H-L) test and the calibration curve. In total, 444 patients were enrolled in our study. Multivariate analysis results showed that smoking, limb swelling, angle of incision, and CRP were independent risk factors for skin necrosis. The AUC value for skin necrosis risk was 0.982 (95%CI 0.97-0.99). The H-L test revealed that the normogram prediction model had good calibration ability (P = .957). Finally, we found a correlation between PWCs and smoking, limb swelling, angle of incision, and CRP after ORIF for calcaneal fracture patients. Our nomogram prediction model might be helpful for clinicians to identify high-risk patients, as interventions could be taken early to reduce the incidence of PWCs.