Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35436970›Full record

Trial reportTrials2022

Planning a method for covariate adjustment in individually randomised trials: a practical guide.

Tim P Morris, A Sarah Walker, Elizabeth J Williamson, Ian R White

Abstract readRandomized Controlled Trial
In one paragraph

Trial report in Trials, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 45 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
45citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

45 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Tim P MorrisMRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL, London, UK. tim.morris@ucl.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5850-3610
A Sarah WalkerMRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL, London, UK.
Elizabeth J WilliamsonDepartment of Medical Statistics, LSHTM, London, UK.
Ian R WhiteMRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL, London, UK.

Funding

Medical Research Council MC_UU_00004/07Medical Research Council MC_UU_00004/09Medical Research Council MC_UU_12023/21Medical Research Council MC_UU_12023/22Medical Research Council MC_UU_12023/29Medical Research Council MR/L004933/2/N96Medical Research Council MR/S01442X/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIt has long been advised to account for baseline covariates in the analysis of confirmatory randomised trials, with the main statistical justifications being that this increases power and, when a randomisation scheme balanced covariates, permits a valid estimate of experimental error. There are various methods available to account for covariates but it is not clear how to choose among them.

methodsTaking the perspective of writing a statistical analysis plan, we consider how to choose between the three most promising broad approaches: direct adjustment, standardisation and inverse-probability-of-treatment weighting.

resultsThe three approaches are similar in being asymptotically efficient, in losing efficiency with mis-specified covariate functions and in handling designed balance. If a marginal estimand is targeted (for example, a risk difference or survival difference), then direct adjustment should be avoided because it involves fitting non-standard models that are subject to convergence issues. Convergence is most likely with IPTW. Robust standard errors used by IPTW are anti-conservative at small sample sizes. All approaches can use similar methods to handle missing covariate data. With missing outcome data, each method has its own way to estimate a treatment effect in the all-randomised population. We illustrate some issues in a reanalysis of GetTested, a randomised trial designed to assess the effectiveness of an electonic sexually transmitted infection testing and results service.

conclusionsNo single approach is always best: the choice will depend on the trial context. We encourage trialists to consider all three methods more routinely.

Indexed as

Research DesignHumansProbabilitySample SizeClinical trialsCovariate adjustmentEstimandsInverse probability of treatment weightingMissing dataRandomised controlled trialsStandardisation

Identifiers

PMID35436970
PMCPMC9014627

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.