Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35436783›Full record

ArticleEuropean heart journal. Quality of care & clinical outcomes2022

Machine learning-based identification of risk-factor signatures for undiagnosed atrial fibrillation in primary prevention and post-stroke in clinical practice.

Renate B Schnabel, Henning Witt, Jochen Walker, Marion Ludwig, Bastian Geelhoed, Nils Kossack, Marie Schild, Robert Miller, Paulus Kirchhof

Open access · bronzeAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in European heart journal. Quality of care & clinical outcomes, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
18citing papers in PubMed
4.1field-weighted citation impact, top 5% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed, 25 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Systematic, randomized atrial fibrillation screening using detailed phenotyping with a risk prediction model combined with patch electrocardiogram in a Swedish population aged 65 years or older: the CONSIDERING-AF trial.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2025
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  4. Transforming atrial fibrillation management by targeting comorbidities and reducing atrial fibrillation burden: the 10th AFNET/EHRA consensus conference.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2025
    Article
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  6. State of the Art of Artificial Intelligence in Clinical Electrophysiology in 2025: A Scientific Statement of the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA) of the ESC, the Heart Rhythm Society (HRS), and the ESC Working Group on E-Cardiology.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2025
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  8. Screening for atrial fibrillation: a narrative review.The British journal of cardiology · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.

Renate B SchnabelDepartment of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, Martinistraße 52, 20251 Hamburg, Germany.ORCID 0000-0001-7170-9509
Henning WittPfizer Pharma GmbH, Linkstraße 10, 10785 Berlin, Germany.
Jochen WalkerInGef - Institute for Applied Health Research Berlin GmbH, Spittelmarkt 12, 10117 Berlin, Germany.
Marion LudwigInGef - Institute for Applied Health Research Berlin GmbH, Spittelmarkt 12, 10117 Berlin, Germany.
Bastian GeelhoedDepartment of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, Martinistraße 52, 20251 Hamburg, Germany.
Nils KossackWIG2 GmbH, Markt 8, 04109 Leipzig, Germany.
Marie SchildPfizer Pharma GmbH, Linkstraße 10, 10785 Berlin, Germany.
Robert MillerPfizer Pharma GmbH, Linkstraße 10, 10785 Berlin, Germany.
Paulus KirchhofDepartment of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, Martinistraße 52, 20251 Hamburg, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-1881-0197
German Centre for Cardiovascular Research · DEPfizer (Germany) · DEInstitute for Applied Economic Research · DE

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aimsAtrial fibrillation (AF) carries a substantial risk of ischemic stroke and other complications, and estimates suggest that over a third of cases remain undiagnosed. AF detection is particularly pressing in stroke survivors. To tailor AF screening efforts, we explored German health claims data for routinely available predictors of incident AF in primary care and post-stroke using machine learning methods. METHODS AND

resultsWe combined AF predictors in patients over 45 years of age using claims data in the InGef database (n = 1 476 391) for (i) incident AF and (ii) AF post-stroke, using machine learning techniques. Between 2013-2016, new-onset AF was diagnosed in 98 958 patients (6.7%). Published risk factors for AF including male sex, hypertension, heart failure, valvular heart disease, and chronic kidney disease were confirmed. Component-wise gradient boosting identified additional predictors for AF from ICD-codes available in ambulatory care. The area under the curve (AUC) of the final, condensed model consisting of 13 predictors, was 0.829 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.826-0.833) in the internal validation, and 0.755 (95% CI 0.603-0.890) in a prospective validation cohort (n = 661). The AUC for post-stroke AF was of 0.67 (95% CI 0.651-0.689) in the internal validation data set, and 0.766 (95% CI 0.731-0.800) in the prospective clinical cohort.

conclusionICD-coded clinical variables selected by machine learning can improve the identification of patients at risk of newly diagnosed AF. Using this readily available, automatically coded information can target AF screening efforts to identify high-risk populations in primary care and stroke survivors.

Indexed as

Atrial FibrillationStrokeHumansMachine LearningMalePrimary PreventionRisk AssessmentRisk Factorsartificial intelligenceAtrial fibrillationmachine learningrisk predictionstroke

Identifiers

PMID35436783
PMCPMC9745664
OpenAlexW4224271129

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.