Preoperative risk stratification of permanent stoma in patients with non-metastatic mid and low rectal cancer undergoing curative resection and a temporary stoma.

backgroundAlthough a temporary stoma can mitigate the severity of anastomotic leakage, some rectal cancer patients retain a permanent stoma after sphincter-preserving surgery. Therefore, this study aimed to identify independent preoperative risk factors for permanent stoma and establish a prediction model for mid-and low-rectal cancer patients who underwent sphincter-preserving surgery and temporary stoma.

methodsWe retrospectively reviewed consecutive patients with non-metastatic rectal cancer between 2000 and 2015. The risk factors for permanent stomas were collected and analyzed.

resultsA total of 1020 rectal cancer patients with temporary stoma were included. The overall rate of permanent stoma was 17.5% (n = 179). Cancer progression and anastomotic complications are major causes of permanent stomas. Multivariate analysis showed that preoperative risk factors such as advanced age, male sex, preoperative CEA ≥ 10 ng/ml, T4 stage, N stage, low rectal tumor, and ASA ≥ III were independent preoperative risk factors after adjustment. The ROC curve of the risk factors and permanent stoma showed an AUC of 0.689, a cut-off value of 2.5, a sensitivity of 0.689, and a specificity of 0.622. The permanent stoma rates were significantly higher between risk scores ≤ 2 and > 2 (29.9% vs. 11.3%, p < 0.001).

conclusionPreoperative CEA ≥ 10 ng/ml, T4 stage, N stage, low rectal tumor, advanced age, ASA ≥ III, and male sex were independent preoperative prognostic factors for a permanent stoma. The risk was higher with a score greater than two. Therefore, the risk of subsequent permanent stoma should be evaluated and informed to the patient prior to the primary surgery.