ArticleCancer medicine2022
Progression-free survival at 3 years is a reliable surrogate for 5-year overall survival for patients suffering from locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.
Article in Cancer medicine, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 13 citations in OpenAlex.
- Pooled it
- Real-world clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with locally advanced, unresectable esophageal/gastroesophageal junction cancer treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy in the United States community oncology setting.Frontiers in oncology · 2025Article
- Article
- Review
- Bufalin suppresses esophageal squamous cell carcinoma progression by activating the PIAS3/STAT3 signaling pathway.Journal of thoracic disease · 2023Article
- Article
- Progression-free survival at 3 years is a reliable surrogate for 5-year overall survival for patients suffering from locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.Cancer medicine · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundDespite 3-year survival being used as a primary endpoint in some randomized controlled trials (RCTs), limited evidence supports the use of intermediate endpoints to evaluate the effect of new therapies in esophageal squamous cell cancer (ESCC). This study aimed to systematically evaluate progression-free survival at 3 years (3-year PFS) and overall survival (OS) among patients with ESCC.
methodsWe identified 528 patients newly diagnosed with locally advanced ESCC who received definitive radiotherapy. OS was compared with an age- and sex-matched general Chinese population using the standardized mortality ratio (SMR). Regression analysis was used to validate the correlation between PFS and OS using published data.
resultsThe annual risk of progression decreased to 11.5% after 3 years. Patients who did not achieve 3-year PFS had a median postprogression survival (PPS) of 7.3 months, with a 5-year OS rate of 9.6% and a SMR of 15.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 12.9-17.5). Conversely, the SMR for patients who achieved 3-year PFS was 0.9 (95% CI, 0.6-1.3). We observed a significant correlation between log hazard ratio (HR) (PFS) and log HR (OS) at the trial level (r = 0.89; 95% CI, 0.88-0.90). The strongest correlation was observed between 3-year PFS and 5-year OS in RCTs and retrospective studies.
conclusionsPatients exhibiting progression within 3 years experienced poor survival, whereas patients achieving 3-year PFS had excellent outcomes. Our study supports 3-year PFS as a reliable primary endpoint for study design and risk stratification in locally advanced ESCC.
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