ArticleEnvironmental epidemiology (Philadelphia, Pa.)2022
Heat-related mortality prediction using low-frequency climate oscillation indices: Case studies of the cities of Montréal and Québec, Canada.
Article in Environmental epidemiology (Philadelphia, Pa.), 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Nonlinear exposure-response associations of daytime, nighttime, and day-night compound heatwaves with mortality amid climate change.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Compounded wind gusts and maximum temperature via semiparametric copula in the risk assessments of power blackouts and air conditioning demands for major cities in Canada.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Heat Adaptation among the Elderly in Spain (1983-2018).International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
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Abstract
Heat-related mortality is an increasingly important public health burden that is expected to worsen with climate change. In addition to long-term trends, there are also interannual variations in heat-related mortality that are of interest for efficient planning of health services. Large-scale climate patterns have an important influence on summer weather and therefore constitute important tools to understand and predict the variations in heat-related mortality. Methods: In this article, we propose to model summer heat-related mortality using seven climate indices through a two-stage analysis using data covering the period 1981-2018 in two metropolitan areas of the province of Québec (Canada): Montréal and Québec. In the first stage, heat attributable fractions are estimated through a time series regression design and distributed lag nonlinear specification. We consider different definitions of heat. In the second stage, estimated attributable fractions are predicted using climate index curves through a functional linear regression model. Results: Results indicate that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is the best predictor of heat-related mortality in both Montréal and Québec and that it can predict up to 20% of the interannual variability. Conclusion: We found evidence that one climate index is predictive of summer heat-related mortality. More research is needed with longer time series and in different spatial contexts. The proposed analysis and the results may nonetheless help public health authorities plan for future mortality related to summer heat.
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