ArticleBMC geriatrics2022
External validation of a new predictive model for falls among inpatients using the official Japanese ADL scale, Bedriddenness ranks: a double-centered prospective cohort study.
Article in BMC geriatrics, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 8 citations in OpenAlex.
- Pre-dialysis medical social worker support and survival in patients with kidney failure: impact on unplanned dialysis, hospitalization, and prognosis.Renal failure · 2025Article
- Validation of a Fall Predictive Model for Inpatients in Japanese Long Term Care Hospitals.International journal of medical sciences · 2025Observational
- External Validation of the Saga Fall-Related Injury Risk Model and Exploration of Common Factors in Multiple Hospitals: A Retrospective Observational Study.Clinical interventions in aging · 2025Observational
- Validation and Improvement of the Saga Fall Risk Model: A Multicenter Retrospective Observational Study.Clinical interventions in aging · 2024Observational
- Effects of Caregiver's Gender or Distance Between Caregiver and Patient's Home on Home Discharge from Hospital in 285 Patients Aged ≥75 Years in Japan.Medical science monitor : international medical journal of experimental and clinical research · 2023Article
- Correction: External validation of a new predictive model for falls among inpatients using the official Japanese ADL scale, Bedriddenness ranks: a double-centered prospective cohort study.BMC geriatrics · 2022Article
- History of Falls and Bedriddenness Ranks are Useful Predictive Factors for in-Hospital Falls: A Single-Center Retrospective Observational Study Using the Saga Fall Risk Model.International journal of general medicine · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
9 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundSeveral reliable predictive models for falls have been reported, but are too complicated and time-consuming to evaluate. We recently developed a new predictive model using just eight easily-available parameters including the official Japanese activities of daily living scale, Bedriddenness ranks, from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. This model has not yet been prospectively validated. This study aims to prospectively validate our new predictive model for falls among inpatients admitted to two different hospitals.
methodsA double-centered prospective cohort study was performed from October 1, 2018, to September 30, 2019 in an acute care hospital and a chronic care hospital. We analyzed data from all adult inpatients, for whom all data required by the predictive model were evaluated and recorded. The eight items required by the predictive model were age, gender, emergency admission, department of admission, use of hypnotic medications, previous falls, independence of eating, and Bedriddenness ranks. The main outcome is in-hospital falls among adult inpatients, and the model was assessed by area under the curve.
resultsA total of 3,551 adult participants were available, who experienced 125 falls (3.5%). The median age (interquartile range) was 78 (66-87) years, 1,701 (47.9%) were men, and the incidence of falls was 2.25 per 1,000 patient-days and 2.06 per 1,000 occupied bed days. The area under the curve of the model was 0.793 (95% confidence interval: 0.761-0.825). The cutoff value was set as - 2.18, making the specificity 90% with the positive predictive value and negative predictive value at 11.4% and 97%.
conclusionsThis double-centered prospective cohort external validation study showed that the new predictive model had excellent validity for falls among inpatients. This reliable and easy-to-use model is therefore recommended for prediction of falls among inpatients, to improve preventive interventions.
trial registrationUMIN000040103 (2020/04/08).
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