ArticleInquiry : a journal of medical care organization, provision and financing
Forecasting of Future Medical Care Expenditure in Japan Using a System Dynamics Model.
Article in Inquiry : a journal of medical care organization, provision and financing. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Pooled it
- Addressing low-value care (LVC) in Asia: a narrative review of Choosing Wisely and other initiatives across Asia.BMJ open quality · 2026Review
- Impacts of cost-sharing rate increment on the expenditure of outpatient care among older adults: quasi-experimental study of cost-sharing reform in Japan.BMC health services research · 2026Article
- [Progress on the application of system dynamics model in the field of health management].Zhejiang da xue xue bao. Yi xue ban = Journal of Zhejiang University. Medical sciences · 2025Review
- Switching from Cigarettes to Heated Tobacco Products in Japan-Potential Impact on Health Outcomes and Associated Health Care Costs.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Cost-effectiveness analysis of hospital treatment volume and survival outcomes in endometrial cancer in Japan.Journal of gynecologic oncology · 2024Article
- Towards greater impact in health technology assessment: System dynamic approach for new and emerging technologies in Iran.Daru : journal of Faculty of Pharmacy, Tehran University of Medical Sciences · 2024Article
- Japan's approval of oral abortion pills: A new era of opportunities and challenges in aligning with global standards.Women's health (London, England)Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe aim of this study was to construct a system dynamics (SD) model to estimate the future medical care expenditure and to address the dynamic issues of health care that should be resolved. In particular, the measures for promoting the spread of generic drug (GE drug) usage in Japan and reducing cancer-related medical expenses were investigated regarding their future impact on medical finances.
methodsThe SD model was constructed from FY 2018 to FY 2050. The change in the future GE drug quantity share was analyzed by using a regression equation. The impact of the increase in medical expense for cancer and the change in the future national medical care expenditure were also estimated.
resultsThe annual total medical care expenditure in FY 2050 would arrive at 58.9-64.2 trillion JPY (US$ 535.1-584.0 billion) (1.3-1.5 times higher than that in FY 2018) with different trends in age groups. The cumulative total medical care expenditure was expected to decrease by about 787.0-989.4 billion JPY (US$ 7.2-9.0 billion) if the impact of the spread of GE drug usage was considered. On the other hand, due to the continuous increase in the cancer-related medical expense, the cumulative total medical care expenditure was estimated to increase about 7554.3-11715.0 billion JPY (US$ 68.7-106.5 billion).
conclusionsIf the cancer-related medical expense continues to increase in the future, an increase of 686.4-1104.2 billion JPY (US$ 6.2-10.0 billion) in FY 2050 is expected which suggests that this disease field should be prioritized regarding the measures to maintain medical finances.
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