ArticleNature communications2022
Modeling the disruption of respiratory disease clinical trials by non-pharmaceutical COVID-19 interventions.
Article in Nature communications, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 10 citations in OpenAlex.
- Clinical characteristics in hospitalized children with infectious mononucleosis in Shanghai China: a single-center retrospective study.Italian journal of pediatrics · 2026Article
- Multi-strain modeling of influenza vaccine effectiveness in older adults and its dependence on antigenic distance.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- In Silico Clinical Trials: Is It Possible?Methods in molecular biology (Clifton, N.J.) · 2024Article
- Multiplex PCR Detection of Respiratory Tract Infections in SARS-CoV-2-Negative Patients Admitted to the Emergency Department: an International Multicenter Study during the COVID-19 Pandemic.Microbiology spectrum · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
13 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Respiratory disease trials are profoundly affected by non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 because they perturb existing regular patterns of all seasonal viral epidemics. To address trial design with such uncertainty, we developed an epidemiological model of respiratory tract infection (RTI) coupled to a mechanistic description of viral RTI episodes. We explored the impact of reduced viral transmission (mimicking NPIs) using a virtual population and in silico trials for the bacterial lysate OM-85 as prophylaxis for RTI. Ratio-based efficacy metrics are only impacted under strict lockdown whereas absolute benefit already is with intermediate NPIs (eg. mask-wearing). Consequently, despite NPI, trials may meet their relative efficacy endpoints (provided recruitment hurdles can be overcome) but are difficult to assess with respect to clinical relevance. These results advocate to report a variety of metrics for benefit assessment, to use adaptive trial design and adapted statistical analyses. They also question eligibility criteria misaligned with the actual disease burden.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.