ArticleBMJ open2022
Evaluating the impacts of tiered restrictions introduced in England, during October and December 2020 on COVID-19 cases: a synthetic control study.
Article in BMJ open, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions as implemented in the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid review.Journal of public health (Oxford, England) · 2025Pooled it
- Workplace interventions to reduce the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection outside of healthcare settings.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Impact of tiered restrictions in December 2020 on COVID-19 hospitalisations in England: a synthetic control study.BMJ open · 2025Observational
- Informatics assessment of COVID-19 data collection: an analysis of UK Biobank questionnaire data.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2024Article
- Non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce COVID-19 transmission in the UK: a rapid mapping review and interactive evidence gap map.Journal of public health (Oxford, England) · 2024Review
- Is a tiered restrictions system an effective intervention for COVID-19 control? Results from Portugal, November-December 2020.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Article
- Impact of community asymptomatic rapid antigen testing on covid-19 related hospital admissions: synthetic control study.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2022Article
- Continuing inequalities in COVID-19 mortality in England and Wales, and the changing importance of regional, over local, deprivation.Health & place · 2022Article
- Evidence of pandemic fatigue associated with stricter tiered COVID-19 restrictions.PLOS digital health · 2022Article
- Tiered restrictions for COVID-19 in England: knowledge, motivation and self-reported behaviour.Public health · 2022Article
- A dynamic microsimulation model for epidemics.Social science & medicine (1982) · 2021Article
- Area level deprivation and monthly COVID-19 cases: The impact of government policy in England.Social science & medicine (1982) · 2021Article
- The Impact of Mobility Restriction Strategies in the Control of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Modelling the Relation between COVID-19 Health and Community Mobility Data.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesTo analyse the impact on SARS-CoV-2 transmission of tier 3 restrictions introduced in October and December 2020 in England, compared with tier 2 restrictions. We further investigate whether these effects varied between small areas by deprivation.
designSynthetic control analysis.
settingWe identified areas introducing tier 3 restrictions in October and December, constructed a synthetic control group of places under tier 2 restrictions and compared changes in weekly infections over a 4-week period. Using interaction analysis, we estimated whether this effect varied by deprivation and the prevalence of a new variant (B.1.1.7).
interventionsIn both October and December, no indoor between-household mixing was permitted in either tier 2 or 3. In October, no between-household mixing was permitted in private gardens and pubs and restaurants remained open only if they served a 'substantial meal' in tier 3, while in tier 2 meeting with up to six people in private gardens were allowed and all pubs and restaurants remained open. In December, in tier 3, pubs and restaurants were closed, while in tier 2, only those serving food remained open. The differences in restrictions between tier 2 and 3 on meeting outside remained the same as in October.
main outcome measureWeekly reported cases adjusted for changing case detection rates for neighbourhoods in England.
resultsIntroducing tier 3 restrictions in October and December was associated with a 14% (95% CI 10% to 19%) and 20% (95% CI 13% to 29%) reduction in infections, respectively, compared with the rates expected with tier 2 restrictions only. The effects were similar across levels of deprivation and by the prevalence of the new variant.
conclusionsCompared with tier 2 restrictions, additional restrictions in tier 3 areas in England had a moderate effect on transmission, which did not appear to increase socioeconomic inequalities in COVID-19 cases.
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