ArticleScientific reports2022
A pre-symptomatic incubation model for precision strategies of screening, quarantine, and isolation based on imported COVID-19 cases in Taiwan.
Article in Scientific reports, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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3 citing papers in PubMed, 8 citations in OpenAlex.
- An observational study on imported COVID-19 cases in Hong Kong during mandatory on-arrival hotel quarantine.Public health in practice (Oxford, England) · 2024Article
- Optimization of Screening Strategies for COVID-19: Scoping Review.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Cost benefit analysis of alternative testing and quarantine policies for travelers for infection control: A case study of Singapore during the COVID-19 pandemic.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Facing the emerging COVID viral variants and the uneven distribution of vaccine worldwide, imported pre-symptomatic COVID-19 cases play a pivotal role in border control strategies. A stochastic disease process and computer simulation experiments with Bayesian underpinning was therefore developed to model pre-symptomatic disease progression during incubation period on which we were based to provide precision strategies for containing the resultant epidemic caused by imported COVID-19 cases. We then applied the proposed model to data on 1051 imported COVID-19 cases among inbound passengers to Taiwan between March 2020 and April 2021. The overall daily rate (per 100,000) of pre-symptomatic COVID-19 cases was estimated as 106 (95% credible interval (CrI): 95-117) in March-June 2020, fell to 37 (95% CrI: 28-47) in July-September 2020 (p < 0.0001), resurged to 141 (95% CrI: 118-164) in October-December 2020 (p < 0.0001), and declined to 90 (95% CrI: 73-108) in January-April 2021 (p = 0.0004). Given the median dwelling time, over 82% cases would progress from pre-symptomatic to symptomatic phase in 5-day quarantine. The time required for quarantine given two real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests depends on the risk of departing countries, testing and quarantine strategies, and whether the passengers have vaccine jabs. Our proposed four-compartment stochastic process and computer simulation experiments design underpinning Bayesian MCMC algorithm facilitated the development of precision strategies for imported COVID-19 cases.
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