ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2022
Determination of the trend of incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Kerman province 2014-2020 and forecasting until 2023. A time series study.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Prediction of Trends and Bioclimatic Factors Influencing the Monthly Incidence of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Using Arima and Sarima Time Series Models in Maraveh Tappeh County, Golestan Province, Iran.Journal of arthropod-borne diseases · 2025Article
- A 12-year analysis of seasonal patterns and disease dynamics ofSaudi medical journal · 2025Article
- Residential environment, human behavior and socio-economic status in transmission of cutaneous leishmaniasis in central Iran.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- The Effects of Different Lunar Phases on Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) Biodiversity in an Important Focus of Leishmaniasis, Southeast Iran.Journal of arthropod-borne diseases · 2024Article
- Temperature prediction of solar greenhouse based on NARX regression neural network.Scientific reports · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
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Abstract
introductionCutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is currently a health problem in several parts of Iran, particularly Kerman. This study was conducted to determine the incidence and trend of CL in Kerman during 2014-2020 and its forecast up to 2023. The effects of meteorological variables on incidence was also evaluated. MATERIALS AND
methods4993 definite cases of CL recorded from January 2014 to December 2020 by the Vice-Chancellor for Health at Kerman University of Medical Sciences were entered. Meteorological variables were obtained from the national meteorological site. The time series SARIMA methods were used to evaluate the effects of meteorological variables on CL.
resultsMonthly rainfall at the lag 0 (β = -0.507, 95% confidence interval:-0.955,-0.058) and monthly sunny hours at the lag 0 (β = -0.214, 95% confidence interval:-0.308,-0.119) negatively associated with the incidence of CL. Based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) the multivariable model (AIC = 613) was more suitable than univariable model (AIC = 690.66) to estimate the trend and forecast the incidence up to 36 months.
conclusionThe decreasing pattern of CL in Kerman province highlights the success of preventive, diagnostic and therapeutic interventions during the recent years. However, due to endemicity of disease, extension and continuation of such interventions especially before and during the time periods with higher incidence is essential.
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