Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35399146›Full record

ArticleInfectious diseases and therapy2022

Interpretable Machine Learning for Early Prediction of Prognosis in Sepsis: A Discovery and Validation Study.

Chang Hu, Lu Li, Weipeng Huang, Tong Wu, Qiancheng Xu, Juan Liu, Bo Hu

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Infectious diseases and therapy, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 91 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
91citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

91 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  9. Predicting adolescent depression: an interpretable machine learning model.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2026
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31 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Chang Hu *Department of Critical Care Medicine, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, Hubei, China.
Lu Li *Department of Critical Care Medicine, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, Hubei, China.
Weipeng HuangDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, Hubei, China.
Tong WuDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, Hubei, China.
Qiancheng XuDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, Hubei, China.
Juan LiuSchool of Computer Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, Hubei, China. liujuan@whu.edu.cn.
Bo HuDepartment of Critical Care Medicine, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, Hubei, China. hobbier1979@163.com.

Funding

Chinese Medical Information and Big Data Association Z-2019-1-003Translational Medicine and Interdisciplinary Research Joint Fund of Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University ZNJC202011
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionThis study aimed to develop and validate an interpretable machine-learning model based on clinical features for early predicting in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients with sepsis.

methodsWe enrolled all patients with sepsis in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV, v.1.0) database from 2008 to 2019. Lasso regression was used for feature selection. Seven machine-learning methods were applied to develop the models. The best model was selected based on its accuracy and area under curve (AUC) in the validation cohort. Furthermore, we employed the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method to illustrate the effects of the features attributed to the model, and to analyze how the individual features affect the output of the model, and to visualize the Shapley value for a single individual.

resultsIn total, 8,817 patients with sepsis were eligible for participation, the median age was 66.8 years (IQR, 55.9-77.1 years), and 3361 of 8817 participants (38.1%) were women. After selection, 25 of a total 57 clinical parameters collected on day 1 after ICU admission remained associated with prognosis and were used for developing the machine-learning models. Among seven constructed models, the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model achieved the best performance with an AUC of 0.884 and an accuracy of 89.5% in the validation cohort. Feature importance analysis showed that Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, blood urea nitrogen, respiratory rate, urine output, and age were the top 5 features of the XGBoost model with the greatest impact. Furthermore, SHAP force analysis illustrated how the constructed model visualized the individualized prediction of death.

conclusionsWe have demonstrated the potential of machine-learning approaches for predicting outcome early in patients with sepsis. The SHAP method could improve the interpretability of machine-learning models and help clinicians better understand the reasoning behind the outcome.

Indexed as

AlgorithmCritically illMachine learningMortalitySepsis

Identifiers

PMID35399146
PMCPMC9124279

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