ArticlePloS one2022
Potential geographic distribution of relict plant Pteroceltis tatarinowii in China under climate change scenarios.
Article in PloS one, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Conservation-Oriented Analysis ofPlants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Article
- Predicting the potential distribution ofFrontiers in plant science · 2026Article
- Investigating the distributional response of the rare and endangered plant Fritillaria przewalskii to climate change based on optimized MaxEnt model.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Advancements in ecological niche models for forest adaptation to climate change: a comprehensive review.Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society · 2025Review
- Adaptive Distribution and Priority Protection of Endangered SpeciesPlants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Ecological risk assessment of future suitable areas forFrontiers in plant science · 2024Article
- Predicting the comprehensive geospatial pattern of two ephedrine-type alkaloids for Ephedra sinica in Inner Mongolia.PloS one · 2023Article
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6 authors.
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Abstract
Pteroceltis tatarinowii (Pteroceltis: Ulmaceae) is a deciduous tree that has a cultivation history of more than 2000 years in China. As an excellent afforestation tree species and rare and endangered tertiary relic plant, P. tatarinowii has high ecological protection value. Due to the forest destruction caused by predatory logging and natural environmental factors, the population of P. tatarinowii in China has decreased significantly. In this study, the potential geographical distribution of P. tatarinowii in China under climate change was predicted using MaxEnt model and ArcGIS based on 223 effective distribution points of P. tatarinowii and 11 environmental variables. The results showed that: (1) the prediction accuracy of MaxEnt model was extremely high, and the areas under curve (AUC) value of the training data was 0.936; The area of the potential suitable habitat area of P. tatarinowii under current climate condition was 180.84×104 km2, and mainly located in the central and southeast regions of China. (2) The domain environmental variables affecting the potential geographical distribution of P. tatarinowii were min temperature of coldest month (12.1~22.7°C), isothermality (26.6~35.8), mean diurnal range 6.9~9.3°C and precipitation of wettest month (189.5 ~955.5 mm). (3) In 2050s and 2070s, compared with current (4.19×104 km2), the area of highly suitable habitat will increase by 0.2%-0.3% (RCP2.6) and 1.22%-3.84% (RCP8.5) respectively. while the poorly, moderately and total suitable habitats will decrease. The gravity center of P. tatarinowii showed a trend of migration to higher latitudes and northern regions in the future. These results will provide theoretical basis for cultivation management and resource protection of P. tatarinowii.
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