ArticleScience advances2022
COVID-19 in low-tolerance border quarantine systems: Impact of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2.
Article in Science advances, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Evaluating the impact of the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem on ecological model inference: A case study of COVID-19 data in Queensland, Australia.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Impact of imported COVID-19 cases on South Korea's response: variant transitions and regional patterns (2020-2023).BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Emergence of shield immunity during spatial contagions.Npj complexity · 2025Article
- Bounded risk disposition explains Turing patterns and tipping points during spatial contagions.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Is SARS-CoV-2 elimination or mitigation best? Regional and disease characteristics determine the recommended strategy.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Estimating the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in New Zealand border arrivals.BMC global and public health · 2024Article
- Rapid prototyping of models for COVID-19 outbreak detection in workplaces.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Article
- Modelling Aotearoa New Zealand's COVID-19 protection framework and the transition away from the elimination strategy.Royal Society open science · 2023Article
- Global Expansion of SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern: Dispersal Patterns and Influence of Air Travel.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2022Article
- Minimising the use of costly control measures in an epidemic elimination strategy: A simple mathematical model.Mathematical biosciences · 2022Article
- The effects of local homogeneity assumptions in metapopulation models of infectious disease.Royal Society open science · 2022Article
- Effect of vaccination, border testing, and quarantine requirements on the risk of COVID-19 in New Zealand: A modelling study.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
In controlling transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the effectiveness of border quarantine strategies is a key concern for jurisdictions in which the local prevalence of disease and immunity is low. In settings like this such as China, Australia, and New Zealand, rare outbreak events can lead to escalating epidemics and trigger the imposition of large-scale lockdown policies. Here, we develop and apply an individual-based model of COVID-19 to simulate case importation from managed quarantine under various vaccination scenarios. We then use the output of the individual-based model as input to a branching process model to assess community transmission risk. For parameters corresponding to the Delta variant, our results demonstrate that vaccination effectively counteracts the pathogen's increased infectiousness. To prevent outbreaks, heightened vaccination in border quarantine systems must be combined with mass vaccination. The ultimate success of these programs will depend sensitively on the efficacy of vaccines against viral transmission.
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.