Exploring predictive frameworks for malaria in Burundi.

In Burundi, malaria infection has been increasing in the last decade despite efforts to increase access to health services, and several intervention programs. The use of heterogeneous data can help to build predictive models of malaria cases. We built predictive frameworks: the generalized linear model (GLM), and artificial neural network (ANN), to predict malaria cases in four sub-groups and the overall general population. Descriptive results showed that more than half of malaria infections are observed in pregnant women and children under 5 years, with high burden to children between 12 and 59 months. Modelling results showed that, ANN model performed better in predicting total cases compared to GLM. Both model frameworks showed that education rates and Insecticide Treated Bed Nets (ITNs) had decreasing effects on malaria cases, some other variables had an increasing effect. Thus, malaria control and prevention interventions program are encouraged to understand those variables, and take appropriate measures such as providing ITNs, sensitization in schools and the communities, starting within high dense communities, among others. Early prediction of cases can provide timely information needed to be proactive for intervention strategies, and it can help to mitigate the epidemics and reduce its impact on populations and the economy.