ArticleInfectious diseases of poverty2022
Reaching the malaria elimination goal in Brazil: a spatial analysis and time-series study.
Article in Infectious diseases of poverty, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.
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21 citing papers in PubMed.
- Forest-river interfaces shape lobomycosis risk in the Amazon Basin.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- What impact did the Brazilian Federal Government's intervention have on malaria cases in the Yanomami Indigenous lands?Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Genome-wide analysis of genetic diversity in Anopheles darlingi from Rondônia State, Brazil.Communications biology · 2025Article
- Metabolic reprogramming and gut microbiota ecology drive divergent Plasmodium vivax infection outcomes in Anopheles darlingi.PLoS pathogens · 2025Article
- Towards Malaria Elimination: A Nationwide Case-Control Study to Assess Risk Factors for Severe Malaria-Related Deaths in Brazil.Tropical medicine & international health : TM & IH · 2025Article
- Integrating machine learning and spatial clustering for malaria case prediction in Brazil's Legal Amazon.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Malaria mortality in Brazil: an age-period cohort study.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Application of a targeted amplicon sequencing panel to screen for insecticide resistance mutations in Anopheles darlingi populations from Brazil.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Assessing the spatial influence of deforestation on malaria incidence in Pará State, Amazon region, Brazil, 2008-2019.Memorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz · 2025Article
- Ecological change increases malaria risk in the Brazilian Amazon.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Field comparison of broad-spectrum white LED-baited traps with narrow-spectrum green LED-baited traps in the capture of Anopheles mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae).Parasitology research · 2024Article
- Malaria in areas under mining activity in the Amazon: A review.Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical · 2024Review
- Malaria in a vulnerable population living in quilombo remnant communities in the Brazilian Amazon: a cross-sectional study from 2005-2020.Revista do Instituto de Medicina Tropical de Sao Paulo · 2024Article
- Sociodemographic aspects, time series and high-risk clusters of malaria in the extra-Amazon region of Brazil: a 22-year study.Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical · 2024Article
- Is Brazil reaching malaria elimination? A time series analysis of malaria cases from 2011 to 2023.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Spatiotemporal analysis of within-country imported malaria in Brazilian municipalities, 2004-2022.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Brazil towards malaria elimination: A time-series analysis of imported cases from 2007 to 2022.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- A snapshot of a representative Brazilian state of illegal mining in indigenous areas during the era of malaria elimination.Cadernos de saude publica · 2024Article
- Relationship between the colours of the rivers in the Amazon and the incidence of malaria.Malaria journal · 2023Article
- Assessing the impact of the "malaria supporters project" intervention to malaria control in the Brazilian Amazon: an interrupted time-series analysis.Malaria journal · 2023Article
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Abstract
backgroundSince 2015, the Global Technical Strategy (GTS) for Malaria 2016-2030 has been adopted by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a comprehensive framework to accelerate progress for malaria elimination in endemic countries. This strategy sets the target of reducing global malaria incidence and mortality rates by 90% in 2030. Here it is sought to evaluate Brazil's achievements towards reaching the WHO GTS milestone in 2030. Considering the total number of new malaria cases in 2015, the main research question is: will Brazil reach the malaria elimination goal in 2030?
methodsAnalytical strategies were undertaken using the SIVEP-malaria official databases of the Brazilian Malaria Control Programme for the Brazilian Amazon region from 2009 to 2020. Spatial and time-series analyses were applied for identifying municipalities that support the highest numbers of malaria cases over the years. Forecast analysis was used for predicting the estimated number of new cases in Brazil in 2025-2050.
resultsBrazil has significantly reduced the number of new malaria cases in 2020 in comparison with 2015 in the states of Acre (- 56%), Amapá (- 75%), and Amazonas (- 21%); however, they increased in the states of Pará (156%), Rondônia (74%), and Roraima (362%). Forecast of the predicted number of new malaria cases in 2030 is 74,764 (95% CI: 41,116-141,160) in the Brazilian Amazon.
conclusionsIt is likely that Brazil will reduce the number of new malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon in 2030 in relation to that in 2015. Herein forecast shows a reduction by 46% (74,754 in 2030 forecast/137,982 in 2015), but this reduction is yet far from the proposed reduction under the WHO GTS 2030 milestone (90%). Stable and unbeatable transmission in the Juruá River Valley, Manaus, and Lábrea still support endemic malaria in the Brazilian Amazon. Today's cross-border malaria is impacting the state of Roraima unprecedently. If this situation is maintained, the malaria elimination goal (zero cases) may not be reached before 2050. An enhanced political commitment is vital to ensure optimal public health intervention designs in the post-2030 milestones for malaria elimination.
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